Canada Markets

Despite a significantly smaller durum crop, commercial stocks are higher than average.

Canola deliveries as of week 14 have been brisk when the estimated crop size is considered. Close to an estimated 40% of available supplies has been delivered in the first 27% of the crop year.

Spring wheat fundamentals remain bullish but both fundamental data and chart activity should be considered and may be a signal to sell.

While producer deliveries and shipments of all grain from primary elevators are down from average levels, Alberta statistics show higher-than-average movement.

This month's USDA estimates included a lower revision in Canada's canola export potential and an upward revision in forecast domestic disappearance. These revised estimates are compared to the latest AAFC forecasts as well as the actual demand realized in 2020-21.

December spring wheat is testing support between $10 and $10.05/bushel, while traders show caution ahead of the November WASDE report.

Statistics Canada released September merchandise trade data on Nov. 5. Each month we look at official trade for select crops and crop products.

With wheat futures showing signs of hesitation in recent trade, we look at both spot Ontario SRW cash prices and new-crop bids and compare to the 10-year average spot price. Both signal opportunities.

The Nov. 2 session saw the November 2022 canola contract take out its Oct. 8 contract high to reach a fresh contract high of $755.50/mt. Daily volume was the highest seen over the life of the contract.

January canola continues to hit fresh highs, while Monday's reports also point to strengthening basis.