Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reports Canada's merchandise exports falling 2.2% from the previous month in June, while imports fell .5%. As a result, Canada's trade deficit with all countries increased from $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion for the largest trade deficit reported since October 2020, or 32 months.

Statistics Canada reports exports in nine of the 11 groups showing declines. Commentary points to a drop in canola exports of 42.4% as a contributing factor, with the larger exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products down 4.4% during the month. The government also notes the Nova Scotia fires and the West Coast port dispute as contributing to slowing activity, which will not be captured until the release of July data in early September.

The following is a summary of export activity of select grains and grain products, with a focus on crops that are not covered in weekly data.

June exports of lentils totaled 119,081 metric tons (mt), the smallest volume shipped in 10 months. Measured in value, 55% was shipped to India, while the 73,126 mt shipped to this country was down from the 117,256 mt shipped in the previous month, the largest volume shipped since October 2020. Total exports are reported at 2.0777 million metric tons (mmt), up 40.6% from a year ago and 9.8% higher than the three-year average, while on track to reach the current AAFC forecast of 2.250 mmt.

Dry pea exports totaled 89,590 mt, also the smallest volume shipped in 10 months. Measured in dollar value sold, 23.6% was shipped to China, 22% was shipped to Bangladesh and 21.7% was shipped to the United States. Total exports are shown at 2.395 mmt, up 33.6% from the same period in 2021-22 and down 18.3% from the three-year average. Cumulative exports have reached 88.7% of the 2.7 mmt AAFC forecast, behind the pace needed to reach the current forecast.

Chickpea exports totaled 14,191 mt in June, just slightly higher than reported for the previous month. By value, 23.6% was shipped to the U.S. while 16.8% was shipped to Pakistan. Cumulative exports of 212,255 mt are up 35.6% from one year ago and 64.9% higher than the five-year average. Exports are just slightly behind the pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast of 235,000 mt for 2022-23.

Canary seed exports totaled 16,768 mt in June, the largest monthly volume shipped this crop year. Measured in dollar value, 44% was shipped to Belgium and 16% was shipped to Mexico. Cumulative exports total 138,323 mt, up 7.5% from last year while down 2.8% from the five-year average. Current movement is on track to reach or exceed the 145,000 mt export forecast set by AAFC which is forecast to result in a minimal carryout for the crop year.

In June, Canada exported 9,887 mt of mustard, the lowest monthly volume shipped in five months. Measured in dollar value, 54.6% was shipped to the United States and 17.9% was shipped to Belgium. Cumulative exports of 126,489 mt are up 26.5% from last year and 21.1% higher than the five-year average. Exports have reached 93.7% of AAFC's forecast exports of 135,000 mt, on track to reach this volume.

Flax exports reached 25,875 mt in June for the highest monthly volume shipped over the first 11 months of the crop year. Measured in volume, 52% was shipped to the U.S. and 22.2% was shipped to China, with smaller volumes shipped to more than eight additional countries. Year-to-date exports are down 9.3% from 2021-22 and down 50.3% from the five-year average, while cumulative exports of 188,766 mt are already ahead of the 150,000 mt forecast released by AAFC in July.

Soybean exports in June were reported at 87,860 mt, the smallest volume shipped this crop year as supplies tighten. Measured in dollars, the largest share was shipped to Japan at 34.7% of the total value, 10.7% to China and 10.6% to the U.S. Cumulative volumes shipped over 10 months total 4.013 mmt, up .5% from one year ago while 2.1% below the five-year average. Cumulative shipments remain on track to reach the current 4.5 mmt AAFC export forecast, although supplies may be a limiting factor.

Corn shipments in June totaled 438,088 mt, down from the previous month but remaining robust. By value, 40% was shipped to the U.S., 28% to Ireland and 18.6% to Spain. Cumulative exports total 2.436 mmt after 10 months, up 37.6% from one year ago and are 84.9% higher than the five-year average. With two months of data left in the row-crop crop year, exports are already close to surpassing the 2.250-mmt forecast released by AAFC in July, which included a 200,000-mt upward revision. Exports have already reached a record level over the 2022-23 crop year.

Canada's corn imports totaled 731,161 mt in June, which is the largest monthly volume ever reported. Cumulative imports total 2.142 mmt, down 60.3% from a year ago while 6.8% below the five-year average. AAFC revised their forecast for Canadian corn imports higher by 200,000 mt in their July forecast to 2.350 mmt, while exports are poised to surpass this forecast with two months of data left to report. Also of interest, the USDA reports U.S. sales of new-crop corn to Canada for 2023-24 are also the largest on record for this time of the year.

Canola oil exports totaled 198,588 mt in June, the lowest volume reported in nine months. Total crop-year exports are shown at 2.879 mmt, up 22% from last year and .3% higher than the three-year average.

Canola meal exports total 380,364 mt, the smallest volume reported in 10 months. Cumulative exports of 4.870 mmt are up 21.4% from last year and 9.3% higher than the three-year average.

Canada's ethanol imports totaled 188 million litres in June, the lowest volume reported in four months while Canada was reported as the top destination for U.S. exports during the month. Cumulative imports for 2023 total 1.223 billion litres, up 56% from a year ago and 99.4% higher than the three-year average.

Biodiesel imports were reported at 122,072 mt, below the record 132,093 mt imported in the month of April. Over the first six months of this year, imports totaled 416,253 mt, up 63.9% from the same period in 2022 and 45.8% higher than the three-year average for the first six months of the year. Canada is reported as the top destination for U.S. biodiesel exports.

Canada's wheat exports in June were shown at 1.418 mmt, the smallest monthly volume shipped since August 2022. It is interesting to note that total exports of wheat (excluding durum) are shown at 18.635 mmt at the end of June, which compares to the CGC's week 47 report as of July 2 that shows 18.168 mmt exported through licensed facilities. This would suggest that roughly 467,000 mt from unlicensed facilities have been shipped.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @Cliff Jamieson

(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.