Durum Exports Remain Strong
The Canadian Grain Commission reported week 37 durum exports through licensed facilities at 69,800 metric tons (mt), while week 38 exports, covering activity for the week ending April 25 was reported at 185,100 mt. This is the largest weekly volume shipped in five weeks and the fifth largest weekly volume shipped this crop year. Note that the Grains Statistics Weekly reports for the two weeks were released late and simultaneously on May 1, following the negotiated tentative settlement that ended the strike for most Public Service Alliance of Canada government workers during the weekend.
As seen on the attached chart, cumulative exports of 4.0382 million metric tons (mmt) are roughly 530,500 mt higher than the steady pace needed to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecast of 4.8 mmt, as indicated by the green line above the black line, both measured against the secondary vertical axis. This volume is up 117% from the same period in 2021-22 and is 27.1% higher than the five-year average.
The five-year average for this period shows that approximately 70% of crop year exports have been realized through licensed exports reported by the CGC over the first 38 weeks of the crop year, while the average pace of movement would project 2022-23 exports of 5.8 mmt, or 1 mmt higher than the current AAFC estimate. Stocks will be a determining factor.
Commercial stocks reported instore licensed facilities total 479,800 mt, which is the lowest stocks reported for this week in at least 10 years. This is 33.9% below the five-year average for this week.
If we consider producer deliveries over the first 38 weeks of the crop year, we see that the CGC reports 4.354 mmt delivered into licensed facilities in the first 38 weeks. This is up 117% from the same period in 2021-22 and is 28.6% higher than the five-year average. This volume now accounts for 79% of producer supplies available to delivery, which is based on Statistics Canada's estimate of farm stocks as of July 31, 2022, added to Statistics Canada's estimated production of 5.443 mmt in 2022.
The 79% of supplies delivered can be viewed as high, with the five-year average indicating that 60% of total available supplies are delivered as of week 38.
Deliveries will clearly slow in the upcoming weeks as producers move to the field. At the same time, deliveries over the balance of the crop year will slow substantially based on current estimates of available supplies, curtailing exports over the balance of the crop year or through the end of July, or there is more durum out there than the current forecast is indicating.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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