Statistics Canada reported Canada's May canola crush at 820,250 metric tons (mt), the lowest volume crushed in three months; down from the 855,008 mt crushed in May 2020 and slightly higher than the 811,911 mt three-year average. A combination of events could lead to lower volumes crushed this month, including spring seeding that slows deliveries, tight supplies, planned maintenance and the rationing of tight stocks through the summer months. A reminder of past media reports that, despite being the largest producer of global canola/rapeseed, Canada will import seed from Ukraine late this summer.
As of May, the cumulative crush is calculated at 8.763 million metric tons (mmt), up 3.6% from the same period in 2019-20. This volume is also 3.1% above the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC crush forecast of 10.2 mmt, a volume that is 1% higher than the 10.129 mmt crushed in 2019-20. This is shown on the attached chart by the horizontal green line, equal to the 850,000 mt/month needed to reach the 10.2 mmt forecast.
AAFC left their 10.2 mmt forecast unchanged in their June supply and demand estimates, with roughly 718,500 mt needed to be crushed in both June and July to meet this forecast, while stocks are forecast to contract to extremely tight levels. Weekly Canadian Grain Commission reports shows domestic disappearance at 595,700 mt this month as of June 20, with a weekly average of close to 200,000 mt calculated over the three most recent weeks. As of the end of week 46, or June 20, commercial inventory is reported at 160,100 mt, while primary elevators are holding 718,300 mt.
Also included in this report was 108,072 mt of soybeans crushed in May, the lowest monthly volume seen in Statistics Canada tables that go back to August 2015. The 2020-21 cumulative crush is shown at 1.255 mmt, down 7.6% from the same period last crop year and 7.1% below the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast of 1.8 mmt.
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