Canada Markets

Canadian Wheat Movement Slowing

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart plots the average No. 1 Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat weekly price as reported by Saskatchewan Agriculture. As of July 10, this bid was reported at $223.29/metric ton, the lowest price reported in almost 12 months. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Producer deliveries of wheat into licensed facilities in week 49, or the week ending July 7, were reported at 281,100 metric tons, down for the fifth straight week. While this volume is above the 271,300 mt shipped in the same week in 2017-18, it is down 32.2% from the five-year average for this week.

Cumulative data shows that wheat has done the heavy lifting in terms of generating cash flow this crop year, with cumulative data as of week 49 reporting 2018-19 deliveries of wheat excluding durum at 20.1518 million metric tons, up 16.1% or 2.789 mmt from the same period in 2017-18 and 9.9% higher than the five-year average.

Over the same 49-week period, canola deliveries were reported at 17.1969 mmt, down 852,000 mt or 4.7% from the same period last crop year.

Signals from across the grain pipeline point to slower movement as the Northern Hemisphere harvest moves ahead, global fundamentals remain bearish and U.S. export values are viewed as the highest in the world.

Week 49 exports from Canada's licensed terminals were reported at 190,500 mt, the lowest weekly volume shipped this crop year. Reported shipments from primary elevators were reported at 287,100 mt, up slightly from the same week in the previous crop year but 18.9% below the five-year average for this week. The Ag Transport Coalition reports the total loads on wheels at 7,872 cars for CN and CP, which is down 5% from the 30-day moving average as of July 14, while also reporting the number of idle cars totaling 1,663 which is 47% above the 30-day moving average.

As seen on the attached chart, the average Saskatchewan No. 1 Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) price, as reported by Saskatchewan Agriculture, has slipped to $223.29/mt as of July 10, the lowest weekly price reported in close to one year. Potential support on this chart is found at $217.87/mt, reported for the week of July 11, 2018.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(ES)

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