Canada Markets

December Spring Wheat ends Higher for Fourth Week

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
Connect with Cliff:
December MGEX spring wheat posted a weekly gain for the fourth straight week, up 17 1/4 cents this week and the largest move over this four-week period. The first study signals supportive commercial interest as the Dec19/March20 futures spread narrows to minus 12 1/2 cents. The lower study shows CFTC's reported noncommercial net-short position, with a late addition showing little change as of May 20. (DTN ProphetX)

The daily chart (not shown) for December spring wheat shows the price for new-crop spring wheat mostly holding between the contract's 50-day moving average at $5.57/bushel and 100-day moving average at $5.73 3/4/bu. this week. Friday's session saw the December contract gain 11 cents/bu. to finish at $5.66/bu., with signs of supportive commercial buying interest given a 1-cent narrowing of the December/March futures spread to minus 12 1/2 cents, the narrowest spread seen since late March.

As seen on the attached chart, the December contract gained 17 1/4 cents over the course of the week, the contract's fourth consecutive weekly gain and the largest weekly gain seen over this four-week period.

This week's high of $5.75/bu. reached the highest level seen in seven weeks, while the first study shows a narrowing Dec/March spread, indicative of supportive commercial interest in forward positions.

The lower study shows noncommercial traders still holding a net-short futures position as seen in the blue bars of the histogram, while a late addition on Friday saw very little change in the data as of May 21, with the bearish net-short position increasing to 7,412 contracts. This could be viewed as a bullish feature for this market, as noncommercial short-covering, which could ultimately spill-over from other markets, could lead to further gains.

Chart resistance lies at the contract's 100-day moving average at $5.73 3/4/bu. (not shown), while the 33% retracement of the move from the contract's August 2018 high and May 2019 contract low is found at $5.76 3/4/bu. A breach of this level could result in a further move to 5.84 1/4/bu., the 38.2% retracement of the same downtrend, while the 50% retracement is found close to psychological resistance at $6.01 1/4.


DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what you think of the U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this week's poll, found on the lower-right side of your DTN Canada homepage.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at

Follow him on Twitter @Cliff Jamieson



To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .