Canada Markets

The durum market has come to life in recent weeks after trading range-bound since August 2013. The attached chart indicates price movement of the National Durum Index which represents an index of elevator bids in the northern U.S. States.

The high for the range traded since last August was $6.88 per bushel, reached the week of Oct. 21, which was followed by a weekly low of $6.59/bu. the week of April 7 to largely define the trading range for nine months. The upper boundary of the range was tested the weeks of May 12 and May 19, with the close for the week of May 27 ending above this level at $6.91.

Since the move above resistance, the weekly trade for week of June 2 increased 28 cents to reach a 38.2% retracement of the move from the June 17 weekly high to the April 7 weekly low at $7.19/bu. Monday's trade saw prices move even higher, with the index calculated at $7.42/bu., as circled on the chart. A continued move higher could see resistance tested in the $7.57 to $7.65/bu. range.

Cash prices in Saskatchewan have also increased, with Saskatchewan Agriculture's weekly data indicating a jump in the provincial average price from $208.52/mt ($5.67/bu.) to $226.53/mt ($6.17/bu) in the week ended June 4. Recent reports suggest bids ranging from the $5/bu. level to as high as $7.25/bu.

Markets will be watching for tomorrow's USDA release of their monthly World Agricultural Weather Highlights report, due out tomorrow, for signs of further weather issues in the North African countries of Morocco and Algeria.

On the supply side, weather on the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Northern Plains will be key. Both Saskatchewan and Manitoba crops are in the ground on track with their respective five-year averages. North Dakota reported on Monday that the crop is 73% seeded, behind the five-year average of 79%. At the same time, 51% of their crop has emerged as of June 8, behind the five-year average of 64%. This could keep buyers on the edge of their seats.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES/)

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.