An Urban's Rural View

If only the fiscal-cliff negotiators had as easy a task as the farm-bill negotiators. The latter seem to be making progress in resolving the differences between the House and Senate bills. The former are going nowhere.

Each side says there's a principle at stake that can't be compromised. For the Republicans, it's thou shalt not raise tax rates. For the Democrats, it's thou shalt not touch Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs.

Problem is, the farm bill is increasingly a flea on the fiscal-cliff dog; there's little chance now that Congress will take it up except as part of a grand bargain on taxes and spending. That being the case, let's try to sketch how the fiscal-cliff negotiations might unfold.

Scenario one: No agreement, we go over the cliff. Don't believe those who say this can't happen, that the negotiations are all theatre, that a deal will unquestionably be reached in the end, even if it's just to kick the can again. There's at least a chance the game of chicken President Obama and Speaker Boehner are playing will end in a crash.

Each must weigh the same competing concerns: fear of being blamed for the ensuing economic disaster if talks fail versus need to placate the party base, which on both sides is screaming "stand firm."

The power balance favors the Democrats (Obama campaigned promising to raise tax rates and won, and polls show voters regard the Republicans as the intransigents) but there are plenty of people on both sides who are willing to jump off the cliff and not worry about the blame. If this scenario plays out, there won't be a farm bill this year; the most we can expect will be an extension of current law.

Scenario two: A deal materializes. The Republicans find some way to cave on tax rates without losing too much face—perhaps by limiting the size of the rate increase or boosting the income level where it kicks in, perhaps by extracting concessions from the Democrats on entitlement programs, probably by some combination of these things.

In this case a farm bill could be part of the deal if the White House is willing to accept cuts in food stamps and the differences between the House and Senate versions of those cuts can be worked out in time. If not, we could still see an extension of current law, with orders to the ag committees to go back to the drawing boards.

I don't know which way it will go. I suspect at this point the negotiators don't, either.

Urban Lehner can be reached at urbanity@hotmail.com