Ag Weather Forum

January 2025 is shaping up to be a wintry month for a lot of the country east of the Rockies. A big winter storm dropped a swath of 6 to 12 inches of snow from northeast Kansas to Delaware over the weekend from Saturday, Jan. 4, through Monday, Jan. 6, as well as a zone of freezing rain just south of the band. The system made a mess and has resulted in cold temperatures for this region because of it. The cold air remains in place and will affect another storm system that will move through the country late this week and weekend, between Jan. 9 to Jan 11.

This storm system will have similar qualities to the one before it but will move through the country differently. An upper-level low has dropped into the Southwest U.S. early this week and will sit for a couple of days before moving eastward to end the week.

A low-pressure center will develop much farther south, across south Texas on Thursday, Jan. 9, and then move along the Gulf Coast through Jan. 10. By early Jan. 11, the system will turn northeast through the Carolinas. Afterwards, models disagree with the development offshore on Saturday but could be close enough to affect southern New England as well.

Heavy snow is again in the forecast, especially for northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and through much of Arkansas. A round of 5 to 10 inches of snow is likely, and some spots may see more in the Ouachita Mountains. Thunderstorms to the south could start to rob the system of moisture as it moves east, and the forecast farther northeast is lower -- around 2 to 5 inches through the northern Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Locally higher amounts are still possible in this zone as well.

In contrast to the past weekend storm, this upcoming system will have a more elongated feature northward as it combines with another trough moving through the northern tier of the country and southern Canada. That will result in more widespread snow northward from the low-center, something that wasn't present in the last storm, and could lead to some enhanced amounts across portions of the Midwest. While models disagree about this potential, it may result in 2 to 4 inches of new snow through the southern and eastern Midwest into the Northeast.

Like the weekend storm, a zone of freezing rain is possible just south of the snow band, from northeast Texas through North Carolina and far southern Virginia. The heaviest amounts are looking to set up in in northeast Georgia through the Carolinas and could mean a lot of ice with more than 0.50 inches possible. However, winds are not forecast to be as strong, more in the 20 to 30 mph range, and may not produce as many fallen trees or power losses as the weekend storm did.

Some refinements to the forecast are going to be needed. Whenever temperatures are borderline for rain, freezing rain and snow, that potential exists. But another major winter storm system will move through this week, and we may not be done with them just yet.

Models had suggested another winter storm could be possible for southern areas in the middle of next week. They backed off on that potential with Tuesday morning's runs, but that could easily come back into the fold. But another large storm system may follow next weekend, too.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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