Fundamentally Speaking

Concluding our series on the pace of U.S. export sales and shipments as of the third week of November in both million bushels and as a percent of the November 2017 WASDE export projection, we look at the U.S. wheat market.

Similar to corn, even though this year's export sales pace has been rather laggard, USDA did see fit to increase the export projection for the 2017/18 marketing year to 1.00 billion bushels, a 25 million increase from the prior month and just 55 million or 5.2% below the year ago level.

The export sales figures as of mid-November was 623.9 million bushels, 7.6% below the year ago level and 62.4% of the latest WASDE export projection.

This is below the 10-year average of 68.3% and the third lowest level of the past 11 seasons.

We have shipped 415.3 million bushels which is 41.5% of the 1.0 bln export projection and that is also below the ten-year average of 47.8% and also the third lowest of the past 11 years.

Still, there is time for our wheat sales to attain the USDA target especially with wheat futures at or near contract lows making our supplies very competitive in the world markets.

(KA)

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