DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...110 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...35 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...KNOXVILLE, TN 1.75 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A strong ridge is spread out across the northern U.S. A small trough remains underneath it. And a trough is moving over the top of the ridge into eastern Canada. That trough will cut off the eastern end of the ridge over the next couple of days and additional disturbances moving through late this week and weekend will expand the eastern trough and push the ridge back to the West. A ridge-west and trough-east pattern that will make the forecast difficult in the transition zone across the Corn Belt through the end of July.

The U.S. and European models still have major differences in how they treat the ridge and trough features this week but are in better agreement for next week. I will use a blend, but still favor the GFS, which is limiting the heat across the Midwest later this week. The European model seems to be much too hot.

A system will move through the north on Friday into Saturday. Another system will follow right behind it and push through the country Sunday into early next week. That will put an end to the heatwave east of the Rockies and bring some relieving rainfall along with it. Additional disturbances moving southeast through the country could contribute additional areas of isolated showers next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A major heatwave will be stuck around through much of the week before a front moves through with relief this weekend. Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture will evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages looks likely. Even with the heatwave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front across the south will continue showers there through the end of the week. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the north bake in a summer heatwave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through Sunday into early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture significantly while rapidly increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heatwave could reverse that quickly in some areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Across the north, temperatures will be incredibly warm this week, challenging record highs in some areas. Lots of 90-degree highs will be found from Minnesota to Michigan in the heat for several days. Models are still trying to get a front to drop south into the region on Wednesday night and Thursday, which would limit the heat across eastern areas and bring some limited showers. Some models keep that front north in Canada and expand the heat to more areas of the region. There is no clear trend, but northern areas will likely suffer anyway. A front will come through this weekend which will put an end to the heat and likely bring some relieving showers into early next week. How widespread that rain is and what follows next week will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front settled into the region over the weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Those continue through at least Wednesday and possibly longer, keeping temperatures more seasonable for this week. With a front clearing through early next week with more showers, conditions remain overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The region will be on the edge of a heatwave most of the week. Some more significant heat may make its way into the west later this week ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): The corn harvest across south-central Brazil continues to advance and is doing so in relatively good condition. Another front may move in late this week with more southern showers into next week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Though fronts have been moving through recently, showers have been rather absent. More of the country could use some rain for vegetative winter wheat. A front moving through later this week and weekend could bring through more widespread precipitation that would be beneficial, but may be followed by more cold weather next week.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be hot and dry in western Europe, though some spotty light showers found their way into France. Heat will try to move eastward this week, but models have retreated from the extreme temperatures. A system in the Atlantic may produce some spotty showers across the west over the next couple of days, but will get more widespread rain into the continent Thursday through Saturday as it finally moves east. That will bring temperatures down and will make it cool across eastern Europe. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Systems are forecast to frequently spin through the region this week and next, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall. Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some isolated showers are scraping through far southeastern areas Tuesday, but conditions should be drier overall across the east. Across the west, a front will move in on Thursday and continue showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, but has yet to really accomplish that task. Still, some damage may occur during a more vulnerable period in August through September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The remnant low of Typhoon Bavi brought heavy rain through the North China Plain into the northeast on Monday. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through this week, and the repeated hits could be a little troublesome for flooding on the North China Plain. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across a lot of the corn and soybean areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal south and well above normal north.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal south and above to well above normal north through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal north and near normal south Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.