DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed up 3/4 cent per bushel and December corn was up 3/4 cent. May soybeans closed up 4 cents and November soybeans were up 3 1/2 cents. May K.C. wheat closed down 6 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 5 3/4 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 10 1/4 cents. The March U.S. dollar index is trading down 0.209 at 96.690. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 197.17 points at 25,751.83. April gold is up $11.30 at $1,309.40, May silver is up $0.05 at $15.47 and May copper is up $0.0045 at $2.9330. April crude oil is up $1.26 at $58.13, April heating oil is up $0.0057, April RBOB is up $0.0405 and April natural gas is up $0.025.

Corn:

May corn closed up 3/4 cent at $3.66 1/2 Thursday, finding slight support after falling to a new contract low Monday and possibly also helped by unconfirmed talk of Chinese buying interest in U.S. corn. Crop conditions in South America remain bearish for prices with mostly beneficial rain in this week's forecasts for both, Brazil and Argentina. Here in the U.S., corn planting in 2019 remains a concern with wet conditions in most crop areas. Wednesday's weather map shows rain in the western Plains and a winter storm brewing, expected to turn into a blizzard in the northwestern Plains later Wednesday and into Thursday. Drier conditions are expected in the 6- to 10-day period, what many fields need before planting. Fundamentally, cash corn should still have a chance to trade higher before June, but concerns about export competition from South America have created some doubt. Earlier Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Department said ethanol inventory dropped from 24.3 million to 23.7 million barrels last week, while production was slightly lower. For now, the trend in cash corn is currently down early in 2019. There were 594 contracts of March corn still open early Wednesday, one day before contracts expire. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.36 Tuesday, 29 cents below the May contract and up from its lowest price in over three months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is trading lower for a fourth consecutive day and most commodities were higher after the Labor Department said U.S. producer prices were up 2.3% in February from a year ago, a lower increase than prices have been showing lately.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed up 4 cents at $9.01 Wednesday, posting a second day higher as Monday's new three-month low has failed to attract new selling. Soybean prices may also be still getting some support from Tuesday's lower crop estimate of 113.5 mmt (4.17 bb) from CONAB for Brazil's soybean crop, some 3 mmt below USDA's latest estimate. For Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating a 53.0 mmt soybean crop (1.95 bb), 2.0 mmt below USDA's estimate, but also with room to go higher as weather conditions have been favorable. There is still no news of a trade agreement with China and the tone turned more bearish on Tuesday after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told Congress major issues still had to be resolved, reported the New York Times. Wisely, the market has not responded to every turn in the trade drama and prices have mostly chopped sideways, waiting for some sort of resolution. For now, the trend in cash soybeans remains sideways with support from commercial net longs. Trading in March soybeans is getting thinner with 198 contracts still open as of early Wednesday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.09 Tuesday, 88 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

After a volatile start to the week, May K.C. wheat closed down 6 cents Wednesday at $4.36 3/4, still a part of the downtrend that started in early February. Wednesday's weather map showed plenty of rain across the southwestern U.S. Plains, followed by high winds and warmer, spring-like temperatures. The rain will also spread eastward to SRW wheat areas on Thursday. Early crop ratings in Kansas are favorable with only 9% of the crop rated either poor or very poor, but it is still very early in the new season. The main bearish pressure on wheat prices continues to be the lack of U.S. exports and, even though prices are cheap, the export pace is unlikely to make much dent in ending supplies. With U.S. wheat supplies plentiful and the uncertainty of a new growing season ahead, the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheat remain down, while the trend in cash HRS wheat is sideways. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.24 Tuesday, 19 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.28, up from its lowest prices in 11 months. Trading in March grain contracts expires on Thursday, March 14.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman

(CZ)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.