DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn was up 1/2 cent and July corn was down 1/4 cent. January soybeans were up 13 1/4 cents and July soybeans were up 12 3/4 cents. March Kansas City wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 7 1/2 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 2 cents.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.30 at 97.27. December gold is down $9.30 at $1,213.10 while December silver is down 11 cents and December copper is down $0.0410. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 24 points at 24,664. January crude oil is down $0.22 at $51.41. January heating oil is down $0.0038 while January RBOB gasoline is up $0.0280 and January natural gas is up $0.007.

Corn:

March corn ended up a half-cent at $3.68 1/2 Tuesday, keeping a low profile and staying in the same range of prices that corn has rotated in since July. Late Monday, USDA said 94% of corn was harvested, 2 percentage points below its normal pace. Areas that are still behind include the Dakotas, Ohio and Pennsylvania and there is more precipitation in store this week for the eastern Midwest, including the latter two states. With harvest getting closer to being finished, most of the focus is on exports and that makes for quieter trading as corn sales have slowed recently. While U.S. corn exports are currently up 83% in 2018-19 and have benefited from this year's lower production in South America, Ukraine's 1.3 billion bushel crop is offering export competition. In spite of the recent sag in corn prices, the trend remains sideways during this quieter time of year. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.26 Monday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 30 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.30 with expectations for further rate hikes in 2019. Outside commodities are mostly lower.

Soybeans:

January soybeans took back 13 1/4 cents of Monday's 18 3/4 cent loss, finishing at $8.75 1/2 with traders still showing jitters about what might happen at Friday's G-20 meeting between the U.S. and China. President Trump told the Wall Street Journal he expects the next round of tariff increases on Chinese goods to kick in on Jan. 1, as designed and is prepared to add more tariffs, as needed. The comments came just three days before Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping are set to meet in Buenos Aires at the G-20 meeting. President Trump's latest comments were not necessarily bullish for soybeans, but Tuesday's gain showed again how jumpy traders are ahead of Friday's meeting. Late Monday, USDA gave soybean prices some bullish hope after they said 94% of harvest was done, but also showed several states where progress is still lagging. With the calendar page flipping and more moderate-to-heavy precipitation headed for the eastern and southeastern Midwest this week, it is looking more likely that a small percentage of this year's anticipated soybean crop will not get harvested. For now, the trend in soybeans remains sideways and there has been modest basis improvement. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.73 Monday, priced $0.89 below the January contract and still above the September low of $7.12.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat fell 6 1/4 cents to $4.83 1/2 Tuesday, erasing Monday's brief gain related to concerns of renewed Russian aggression toward Ukraine. March Chicago wheat was also lower, down 7 1/2 cents at $5.06 1/2 and challenging its lowest prices since January. Late Monday, USDA said 95% of winter wheat was planted and 86% was emerged. Winter wheat planting is usually finished or close to it by now, and it looks like some of the intended crop will not get a chance this season. For the wheat that is up, USDA said 55% was rated either good or excellent, up from 50% a year ago. USDA doesn't release a planting estimate until Jan. 11. Part of the bearish problem for K.C. wheat futures is that there are still noncommercial net longs under pressure to liquidate while cash prices are at their lowest level in seven months. As the Northern Hemisphere goes dormant, cash SRW wheat and spring wheat prices continue to trend sideways, while the trend in cash HRW wheat remains lower. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.41 Monday, 24 cents below the December contract and below former support at $4.50. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.77 Monday and is still above its support.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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