DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and July corn was down 2 1/2 cents. January soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents and July soybeans were up 2 1/2 cents. March K.C. wheat closed up 3 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1/2 cent, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/2 cents.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.44 at 96.35. December gold is up $7.20 at $1,222.20 while December silver is up 11 cents and December copper is up $0.0455. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 125 points at 25,415. January crude oil is up $0.09 at $56.77. January heating oil is up $0.0029 while January RBOB gasoline is up $0.0245 and January natural gas is up $0.251.

For the week: December corn closed down 5 cents and July was down 6 cents. January soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents while the July was up 4 cents. March Kansas City wheat was down 2 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 3 cents, and March Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/2 cents.

Corn:

December corn fell 2 3/4 cents to $3.64 3/4 Friday and was down a nickel on the week, chopping in a narrow, sideways pattern since early October. Except for snow in the Dakotas, Friday's weather map was mostly dry across the Corn Belt, and it is expected to remain that way for at least the next seven days. That is good news for those trying to finish harvest after encountering all sorts of obstacles this fall. At this time of year, exports typically become the main topic of conversation, and in that regard, corn is off to a good start. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 35.1 million bushels (mb) and 43.8 mb respectively, putting total exports up 91% in 2018-19 from a year ago and commitments up 15% from a year ago -- both ahead of USDA's estimated pace. Seasonally, corn prices tend to rise gradually until early June, but the current trend has stalled out sideways. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.34 Thursday, staying above the September low and 33 cents below the December contract, showing gradual basis improvement. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.44, falling back from Monday's new one-year high while a Brexit deal remains unsettled.

Soybeans:

January soybeans finished up 3 1/2 cents at $8.92 1/4 Friday and was up 5 1/2 cents on the week, keeping a narrow, sideways range since the first of November. It has been a tough fall for soybean harvest and more crop loss than USDA has currently estimated seems likely, especially from the Southern Plains and southeastern Midwest. If there is good news for growers, it is that the forecast is mostly dry for the next seven days. On the other hand, exports are not good news for U.S. soybean growers. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 17.3 mb and 49.9 mb respectively, bearish amounts that have total exports down 42% from a year ago and total commitments down 32% from a year ago. China remains absent with only 3% of last year's export total. Meal commitments on the other hand, are doing well at 21% higher than a year ago. Following Friday's weekly report, USDA added a small sale of 3.7 mb (100,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2018-19. All of which brings us back to the question of how trade discussions are going with China, and so far, there is no confirmed progress, but FOB soybean prices do appear to reflect hope for a deal as the gap between Brazil and New Orleans has narrowed significantly to $1.72 above New Orleans. For now, soybeans are trading within a sideways range. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.97 Thursday, still up from its lowest price in eleven years and priced $0.91 below the November contract, also showing gradual basis improvement.

Wheat:

March K.C. wheat ended up 3 1/4 cents at $5.06 1/2 Friday and trimmed the week's loss to 2 3/4 cents. Before Friday, March K.C. futures prices had dribbled to new 2018 lows this week, but DTN's cash index of HRW wheat stayed firmly sideways -- a possible hint that local demand is doing well. Demand clues for wheat look even better in the futures spreads of Chicago and Minneapolis contracts where December contracts have gained significantly on March prices the past month. However, when we look at the export data, the proof of better demand is not showing up yet. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 16.1 mb and 9.7 mb respectively, bearish amounts that have wheat exports down 20% from a year ago. For now, the cash price trends for all three wheats are sideways with HRW wheat close to support. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.52 Thursday, still above its July low of $4.50 and down 28 cents from the December contract. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.75 Thursday, up from its July low of $4.51.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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