DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 3/4 cents in the December contract and up 2 1/2 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 2 cents in the January contract and down 2 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 1/2 cent in the December Kansas City contract, down 1 1/2 cents in December Chicago, and up 1 cent in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.27 at 96.07. December gold is down $1.40 at $1,231.90 while December silver is up 48 cents and December copper is down $0.0540. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 145 points at 25,416. December crude oil is up $0.33 at $63.47. December heating oil is up $0.0329 while December RBOB gasoline is down $0.0018 and December natural gas is up 0.262.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents at $3.74 Monday, while the harvest effort continues to dodge rain in early November. Weekend rains fell across the Midwest and were not especially disruptive, except to areas of the Southern Plains and southeastern Midwest where fields were already too wet. The seven-day forecast continues to have a wet outlook for the southeastern U.S. and eastern Midwest, but is drier in the Western Corn Belt. USDA's Crop Progress report will be watched Monday afternoon for harvest status in states like Iowa where progress has been slow. On the demand side, USDA said 49.4 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, putting total inspections up a whopping 78% in 2018-19 from a year ago and far above USDA's estimated pace for the season. USDA also said 4.0 million bushels (101,745 mt) of U.S. corn were sold to Mexico for 2018-19. On Thursday, USDA will release its next round of monthly estimates and the crop estimate of 14.78 billion bushels is not expected to change much, if at all. The trend in corn remains up as we head toward a quieter time of year. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.34 Friday, well above its September low of $3.00 and priced 38 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the U.S. dollar index is down 0.27 and most other commodities are lower. December natural gas however, is up 26.2 cents per MMBtu (+8%) with colder temperatures expected to move into the central U.S. this week.

Soybeans:

January soybeans closed down 2 cents at $8.85 3/4 after a quiet day of trading. So far, soybean prices are holding on to last Thursday's tweet-related gain, but there is no evidence yet that the U.S. and China are closer to an agreement. Early Monday, USDA said 45.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for export last week, putting the 2018-19 total down 42% from a year ago, far below USDA's estimate for a 3% drop. Because of the slow pace of soybean export activity, USDA may reduce its soybean export estimate on Thursday and push the ending stocks estimate even higher. Also a bearish sign, USDA's attache lowered its estimate of China's soybean imports from 94.0 mmt in 2018-19 to 85.0 mmt. The lower estimate is not a shock in this environment, but if USDA confirms the lower number on Thursday, it will add to bearish pressure on prices. While the U.S. soybean harvest struggles with too much rain in the U.S., early crop conditions are doing well in Brazil and expect more beneficial rain in this week's forecast. According to Dow Jones and private consultant AgRural, 60% of Brazil's soybeans have been planted, roughly 50% ahead of their usual pace. With lots of unanswered questions about U.S. soybean demand and, in spite of a bearish start in Brazil, soybean prices continue to trade in a sideways range, well above their September low. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.85 Friday, priced $1.03 below the January contract and still well above the September low of $7.12. There were 370 delivery intentions of November soybeans issued late Friday. There were 5,961 November contracts open as of early Monday.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat ended up a half cent at $5.04 3/4, a quiet day of trading before USDA gives another report Monday afternoon on how U.S. winter wheat planting is going in early November. USDA has not given an official estimate of winter wheat plantings yet, but they have shown that planting progress is slower than usual in Kansas and may result in fewer planted acres this fall. On the demand side, USDA said 12.0 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export last week, another bearish amount that has total inspections down 22% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Because of the slow export pace, wheat prices are at risk of seeing a higher estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks in Thursday's WASDE report. As daylight hours narrow in the Northern Hemisphere, wheat price volatility narrows, and the trends in all three wheats remain sideways. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.71 Friday, 33 cents below the December contract and holding above support at $4.50. Similarly, DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.76 Friday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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