DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1 cent in the December contract and down 3/4 cent in the July. Soybeans were up 1 cent in the November contract and up 1/2 cent in the July. Wheat closed down 7 cents in the December Kansas City contract, down 6 cents in December Chicago, and down 8 cents in the December Minneapolis contract. The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.44 at 95.19. December gold is down $3.40 at $1,227.60 while December silver is down 3 cents and December copper is up $0.0005. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 112 points at 25,686. November crude oil is down $2.10 at $69.82. November heating oil is down $0.0298 while November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0549 and November natural gas is up $0.079.

Corn:

December corn ended down a penny at $3.74 1/4 Wednesday, a quiet day of trading that showed little price movement. As expected, Wednesday's weather map was mostly dry across the central U.S. with the bulk of the country's rain confined to central Texas. The current dry spell is expected to last another ten days and will do a lot to help get crops out of the fields. Corn export demand has had a bullish influence on prices lately, but the ethanol market is showing signs of softening demand. December ethanol prices are near $1.30 a gallon, trapped near their lowest levels on record and the U.S. Energy Department showed ethanol inventory inched up to 24.1 million barrels as of October 12, near the record high of 24.3 million barrels. Last week's production remained high, but fell back to 1.011 million barrels per day from 1.040 million the previous week. With most corn crops still in the field, the trend remains up in December corn, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.33 Tuesday, up from its September low and priced 42 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index was up 0.44 and most other commodities were lower. Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting said GDP "appeared to be rising at a strong rate in the third quarter...."

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 1 cent at $8.85 3/4 Wednesday, still hanging on to most of Monday's gain while combines make a slow return to the fields. As Tuesday's article from DTN Reporter Emily Unglesbee explained ("The Science Behind Shattered Soybeans"), heavy rains since late August have put part of this year's record crop at risk of shattering or early sprouting which will lead to either discounted prices or crop loss. Just how much will take time to assess and during that time, prices have benefited from nervousness on the short side of the market. The other hot topic this year is U.S. soybean demand and Thursday morning's report will be watched closely for any signs of purchases from China. With FOB prices $2.37 a bushel higher in Brazil than at New Orleans, the U.S. is currently the main supplier of soybeans to the world and will be so at least until February 2019 when Brazil's next crop becomes available. So far, soybean planting in Brazil is going faster than usual and new crops are getting plenty of rain. The trend remains up in November soybeans, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.83 Tuesday, up from its lowest price in 11 years and priced $1.01 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat fell 7 cents to $5.21 Wednesday, pulled back into its sideways range just as prices were challenging their one-month highs. Wednesday's weather map still showed rain in central Texas and more is expected the next seven days. Other winter wheat areas are drier, however, allowing for the final third of the crop to be planted. While this fall's rains in the southwestern Plains have been troublesome at times, the increased moisture should give this crop a better chance of looking good next spring. Outside the U.S., Canada should make progress with spring wheat harvest this week. Planting conditions remain dry however in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine -- adding to possible concerns for wheat crops early in 2019. For now, December contracts for all three wheats are holding in a narrow, sideways range, supported above their July lows. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.91 Tuesday, up from its lowest price in two months and 38 cents below the December contract. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.84, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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