DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 cents in the December contract and down 2 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents in the November contract and down 5 1/2 cents in the July. Wheat closed down 9 3/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 9 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 4 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.25 at 95.13. December gold is up $2.60 at $1,201.70 while December silver is up 4 cents and December copper is up $0.0145. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 25 points at 25,958. October crude oil is down $1.13 at $68.74. October heating oil is down $0.0211 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0343 and October natural gas is down 0.028.

Corn:

December corn ended down 3 cents at $3.65 1/4 and pardon the pun, but prices are treading water while more rain fell over already saturated areas from Kansas to southern Wisconsin again on Wednesday. Wisconsin and Nebraska may get a break the next seven days, but the forecast expects more heavy amounts across the central and eastern Midwest, adding to crop quality and harvest concerns. Tropical Depression Gordon is also bringing rain into Alabama, headed to the Mississippi Delta while corn harvest is underway in the South. Late Tuesday, USDA said 22% of corn was mature, above the five-year average of 11%. USDA's good-to-excellent rating fell from 68% to 67%, but still indicates a big crop, if weather will cooperate long enough for a good harvest. Early Wednesday, USDA said 4.0 million bushels (mb) (101,736 metric tons) of U.S. corn were sold to Mexico for 2018-19 -- another sign that new-crop corn remains popular. The wet start to September has raised concern about harvest conditions, but traders are largely ignoring the situation so far. December corn continues to hold a sideways range between roughly $3.50 and $3.90. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.24 Tuesday, holding above its low in 2018 and priced 44 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.25, mostly quiet ahead of Friday's unemployment report.

Soybeans:

November soybeans fell 6 1/4 cents to $8.38 Wednesday, not finding much enthusiasm among traders while the threat of more U.S. tariffs being enacted on Chinese goods is hanging over markets and may happen by the end of the week. More rain fell across the central Midwest Wednesday and is not helping crops where fields are flooded. Traders however, are not taking the excess rain seriously yet, while harvest activity is just getting started in the southern states. USDA said late Tuesday that 16% of soybeans are dropping leaves, more than the five-year average of 9% for this time of year. The good-to-excellent rating stayed at 66%, which is still high enough for a record soybean harvest, as long as the weather allows it. The elephant in the room continues to be trade policy with China and soybean prices at their lowest level in over nine years are reflecting a bearish mood that does not anticipate China giving up on its 25% tariff anytime soon. Amid the uncertainty, November soybeans remain under pressure, but are holding above support at $8.25. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.47 Tuesday, up from its lowest price in 10 years and priced 97 cents below the November contract, the weakest basis in 11 years.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat dropped 9 3/4 cents to $5.21 3/4 Wednesday, probing for possible support near their August low, but not finding much buying interest yet. The latest problem for prices seems to be that U.S. winter wheat areas are benefiting from recent rains just as planting is expected to begin later this month. Meanwhile, DTN's Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson reported planting conditions are dry for winter wheat areas in the Black Sea Region and there is not much rain in the seven-day forecast. So far, traders are showing no concerns about wheat on the futures board. USDA's next round of estimates is due out Wednesday, Sept. 12 and there is room for global production to be reduced further, judging by the 5 1/2% drop that the International Grains Council is predicting and by the recent crop estimate of 29.0 million metric tons (mmt) from Statistics Canada. Late Tuesday, USDA said 87% of spring wheat has been harvested with Minnesota and South Dakota nearly finished. Looking at export activity and futures spreads, there does not seem to be much demand interest for wheat at this time. December contracts of all three wheats remain under bearish pressure, but are also holding sideways in a wide range. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.83 Tuesday, 49 cents below the December contract and down from its high in 2018. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.95 Tuesday, also down from its highest price in 2018.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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