DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 1/4 cent in the March contract and unchanged cent in the December. Soybeans were down 5 cents in the March contract and down 2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 1 cent in the March Chicago contract, down 1/4 cent in the March Kansas City, and down 5 cents in the March Minneapolis contract.

The March U.S. dollar index is down 0.44 at 91.62. February gold is up $3.80 at $1,323.10 while March silver is down 6 cents and March copper is down $0.0050. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 141 points at 25,510. February crude oil is up $0.68 at $64.25. February heating oil is up $0.0024 while February RBOB gasoline is up $0.0183 and February natural gas is up $0.159.

Corn:

March corn ended down a quarter-cent Thursday, staying quiet ahead of Friday's WASDE and Dec. 1 Grain Stocks reports while a winter storm pushed from the northwestern U.S. Plains into the northern Midwest. According to Dow Jones, analysts are not expecting much change in Friday's WASDE report for corn and Dec. 1 corn stocks are expected to total 12.41 billion bushels, a little more than a year ago. Feed and ethanol demand have been active for corn in the first quarter, but exports are down from a year ago and did not improve much in Thursday's weekly update. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 17.2 million bushels (mb) and 35.0 mb respectively, another bearish combination for the week that put total shipments down 32% from a year ago and may lead to bearish adjustments in Friday's reports. The trend in March corn is sideways with prices holding narrowly above their December low of $3.46 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.16 Wednesday, priced 33 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in four months. In outside markets, the March U.S. dollar index is down 0.44 after the U.S. Labor Department said producer prices were down .1% in December and up 2.6% from a year ago, less than expected. March cotton is up its 3-cent limit, helped by increased export sales in USDA's weekly report.

Soybeans:

March soybeans lost a nickel Thursday, continuing to succumb to bearish pressure as this week's forecast includes rain for both Brazil and Argentina. Thursday's trading also saw March soybean meal drop $3.30 to its lowest close since September -- another technical bearish hit for the soy complex. Along with crop-friendly weather in South America, soybean prices are also suffering from a lack of U.S. export business this season. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 22.3 mb and 56.8 mb respectively, another bearish combination that kept total soybean shipments down 14% from a year ago. A little later, USDA mentioned 4.85 mb (132,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2017-18. Fundamentally and technically, the case for March soybean futures continues to look bearish. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.85 Wednesday, priced 70 cents below the March contract and near its lowest price in three months. Among January contracts, delivery intentions totaled 276 for soybeans, 27 for soybean meal, and 28 for soybean oil early Thursday. January grain futures contracts expire early Friday.

Wheat:

March Chicago wheat fell a penny, fighting back from a lower start with help from a return of winter storms to the northwestern Plains and cold temperatures to the Southern Plains. The cold is expected to hang on for the next several days. Thursday's updated U.S. Drought Monitor showed an increase of drier conditions across the southwestern U.S. Plains and Thursday's high wind warnings in western Kansas and the Texas Panhandle won't help that situation. In the northwestern Plains however, there was moisture improvement, and erasing extreme drought from Montana. Drought in the western Plains continues to be a concern for wheat this spring, but for now, the trend in winter wheat remains sideways with plentiful supplies and a slow export pace keeping prices under pressure. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 2.6 mb and 10.6 mb respectively, another bearish week that has total shipments down 7% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect USDA to estimate U.S. winter wheat plantings at 31.4 million acres for 2018, the smallest in over a century. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.03 Wednesday, priced 32 cents below the March contract and near its highest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.94, its highest price in five months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(BAS)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.