Technically Speaking

With poor economic news such as the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% filtering out in the past week and the surge in the Japanese yen, the U.S. Dollar Index has plunged to its lowest level since March. Typically, that would be very supportive for U.S. wheat, as would the expected...

Favorable crop prospects in the U.S. have encouraged specs to sell November soybeans to their lowest price level in over three and a half years, creating a bargain for potential buyers. Technically speaking, there is also reason to believe long-term support may be near.

Markets seem to get overdone to the upside and the downside. Following the recent bearish slide in corn and especially soybeans and wheat prices, it is difficult to talk about anything other than the following.

More than just salad dressing, the world's plant oils are increasingly being sought out as low-carbon substitutes for fuel as prices show signs of increased demand.

So far, managed money has been rewarded for being bearish corn. Will that continue?

Managed futures funds are heavily net short in corn futures, but cash prices reflect uncertain prospects for 2024 production and strong demand at these lower prices.

Minneapolis September wheat is getting very oversold and is ripe for a correction.

After trading higher in late April and May, July contracts of both corn and wheat have fallen back the past two weeks, but it is Chicago wheat that may have stronger potential for technical support.

With last week's crop progress report indicating that corn was 83% planted as of Sunday, and slightly ahead of the 5-year average, there is no doubt that the U.S. corn crop is off to a favorable start. .

On May 24, July Chicago wheat closed near $7 for the first time since August 2023, helped by a number of weather surprises in early 2024.

On May 14, 2024, the U.S. initiated a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, always a touchy subject for the soybean market. Traders might be wondering about retaliation from China; but so far, soybean prices are showing no concern.

Just since April 18, Kansas City July wheat has surged $1.20, fueled by several frost/freeze events in key Russian wheat areas with another report of frost over the weekend.

The corn planting season is here and challenges are already emerging as the rains keep coming. December corn prices turned higher and we have to wonder how much potential there may be for more gains ahead.

Kansas City new-crop wheat meandered within a 40-cent range for two consecutive months and appeared to have little chance of a breakout of that sideways pattern. That is until just eight days ago. Since then, the rally has not paused. Ultra-short-managed money funds and...

While the top two U.S. soybean competitors are both harvesting soybeans, November soybean prices are only showing limited bearish pressure in April. Is something more going on?

Brazil's safrinha corn crop is about to enter its dry season, but so far, corn prices are not showing concern for smaller supplies either in the U.S. or in Brazil.

With wheat markets universally under severe pressure for the last year or more, it would be going out on a fragile limb to even think about predicting a turnaround. However, wheat in general, and KC wheat in particular, is showing some subtle signs the worst could be over.

Just as the new highs in cash soybean prices above $16.47 ultimately lost support in June 2022, the new lows in February 2024 may suffer the same fate.

Wheat, for months, has been beaten down by aggressive Russian and Ukrainian exports. While Russian values appear to be firming a bit, there seems to be another change that could impact their ability to export. Following last weekend's Ukraine attack on a Russian oil facility and...

December 2023 corn bounced up from a low of $4.47 on Nov. 29, 2023, and December 2024 corn bounced up from a low of $4.46 on Feb. 26, 2024. I discuss the possibility of a double-bottom in new-crop corn.