South America Calling
Climate Change Impact on Argentine Wheat
Argentina has lost half its wheat area since 2001, due principally to the unpopularity of government's export controls.
Farmers are hopeful this policy will change, but global warming potentially represents a different threat to yields across the Pampas, climatologists warned at a conference in Mar del Plata this week.
Key wheat-producing regions in the south of Buenos Aires province could experience warmer weather that will curb yield potential, said Guillermo Garcia, a Buenos Aires University climate researcher, using Argentine models elaborated from IPCC research into the impact of global warming.
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Temperatures are expected to rise 0.7 to 0.9 degree Celsius between 2020 and 2029 compared with 1960-1990. The hikes in autumn will limit the ideal Argentine planting period, while higher nocturnal temperatures will also affect yield potential by accelerating plant maturation, thus allowing fewer days for biomass accumulation.
Climate change will have the effect of improving summer and autumn rainfall, but winter precipitation may be flat to lower, said Carolina Vera, a Buenos Aires University climate researcher.
Overall, not accounting for the impact of CO2 emissions, climate change will cut a projected 4% of Argentine wheat yields over the next century, said Garcia.
That represents a continuation in the deterioration of the pampas' wheat yield potential over the last 80 years due to a rise in minimum temperatures.
Argentina has traditionally been a major wheat exporter but has reduced shipments in recent years.
(AG)
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