Fundamentally Speaking

In its first estimate for U.S. wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year given in last week's May WASDE report, the USDA forecast overseas sales down 20 million bushels (mb) to 800 mb.

While supplies are forecast higher with ending stocks this coming season projected at 923 mb (up 10% from this year which is the highest level since 2019/20), exports are still expected to be smaller partly because of larger expected production and exports from key competitors, most notably the European Union, Argentina, and Russia.

Of course, it is still early as the new crop season does not start until June 1, and this is the first of several export projections the USDA will make for the upcoming marketing year.

Along these lines, this chart shows new crop U.S. wheat exports as of the second week of May on the left-hand axis in million bushels.

On the right-hand axis are those sales as a percent of the USDA's first export projection given in the May WASDE report.

Also reported on the left-hand axis is the change in exports from the first WASDE projection to the final figure, also in million bushels.

As of last week's export sales report, 121.2 mb of U.S. wheat have been sold for the new marketing year starting June 1, the second highest total for this time of year since the 2016/17 season.

This is 15.1% of the first USDA export projection of 800 mb, the highest percentage in this regard since the 2013/14 season and actually the third highest percent over the past 25 years.

As noted, it is still very early to make any prognostications as to what this means for final exports with the U.S. facing a large amount of export competition as our overseas sales have been sluggish in recent years with our overseas sales two years ago at 707 mb, over a 50-year low.

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