Fundamentally Speaking

Recent Spurt in Sales Prompts Hike in Wheat Export Projection

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

Recent wheat export sales and inspections have been a little encouraging perhaps justifying the USDA's decision earlier this month to boost 2019/20 wheat export projection by 50 million bushels (mb) to 950 mb.

A review of past sales for this time of the marketing year, especially in terms of the percent of the latest WASDE projection, shows they are really not that out of the ordinary and it may be that wheat sales look rather robust compared to the abysmal pace of corn and soybean exports.

This graphic shows the cumulative export sales and shipments of U.S. wheat as of the second week of July from the start of the marketing year June 1 in million bushels on the left hand axis while on the right hand axis those sales and shipments are plotted as a percent of the July WASDE export projection.

Total sales at 287 mb are actually the third lowest of the past nine years and are 30.4% of the new WASDE export projection, also the third lowest of the past nine years and about equal to the ten-year average of 29.9%.

Shipments at 107.0 mb are running at a slightly better pace being 11.3% of the 950 mb export projection, slightly above the ten-year average of 10.0%.

Even though wheat production prospects are down in the European Union, Russia, Australia and Canada, global stocks are immense and U.S. wheat prices have lost some of their competitiveness as this commodity has been dragged higher by the two-month-old corn and soybean rally.



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