According to the Canadian Grain Commission's Grain Statistics Weekly for week 6, producers have delivered 6.245 million metric tons (mmt) of principal field crops into the licensed handling system over the first six weeks of the crop year, or the week ended Sept.12. Of the largest crops, this includes 2.0606 mmt of wheat; 1.5164 mmt of canola; 797,500 metric tons (mt) of peas; and 760,500 mt of barley.
While this cumulative volume is 20.7% lower than the same period in 2020-21, it is only 5.3% lower than the three-year average for this six-week period. An early harvest and attractive prices have contributed to early deliveries, while tight old-crop stocks for many crops and a reduced crop size in 2021 have limited deliveries.
The attached chart shows the grain delivered over the first six months as a percentage of the supplies available to deliver this crop year, as calculated by adding Statistics Canada's July 31 farm stocks estimate to the agency's most recent production estimate.
For example, week 6 data shows 797,500 mt of dry peas delivered into licensed facilities as of Sept. 12. This volume makes up 29.1% of the estimated supplies available for delivery, which includes July 31 farm stocks of 212,000 metric tons and Statistics Canada's estimated 2021-22 production of 2.5266 mmt, based on their August model results. This analysis indicates exporters and domestic markets will battle over the remaining 71% or less than 2 mmt based on current estimates over the remaining 46 weeks of the crop year.
This is the first look at this study this crop year and it bears watching as forecast farm supplies tighten over time, with price implications inevitable.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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