DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Higher Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $290.28 +$2.77*

Hogs: Higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $103.40 -$0.58**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Packers were interested in getting their hands on some cattle early this week, with some light trade taking place in the South at $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Whether this will carry through the rest of the week is anyone's guess. However, it should provide support to the market. What impacted the market on Monday was the Trump administration signing executive orders to temporarily suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations for 200 days, according to the Wall Street Journal. This will open the door for a substantial increase in beef imports. There were also two other orders signed to help rebuild the herd by giving additional loans to ranchers and easing restrictions on wolves and electronic ear tags in cattle. This is going to increase market volatility to a greater degree through the rest of the year. Boxed beef prices were significantly higher on Monday, with choice up $2.83 and select up $6.48.

Hog futures responded to higher cash and cutouts on Friday with triple-digit gains in contracts through the end of the year. The nearby May contract did not respond as it remains close to cash and will cease trading on Thursday. Packers did not release a change in price on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report on Monday due to the limited volume of hogs traded. Pork cutouts declined $0.58. Cash is expected to be high today as packers may step up aggressively to procure hogs earlier rather than later. There is a possibility that pork demand could increase with the increasing of imports of beef from other countries, as it may increase the uncertainty of what type of beef they are consuming.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Early cash cattle trade at a higher price than last week should provide support to the market.	1)	President Trump's signing of an executive order to suspend tariffs on imported beef for 200 days opens the door for a surge in beef imports.
2)	Boxed beef prices surged on Monday, with select prices moving above choice. Weekend demand was strong with retail restocking shelves.	2)	More beef imports hitting the store shelves may reduce the consumer preference for beef, as they will not want to consume beef that has been shipped in from other countries.
3)	The strong rebound in hog futures may indicate a turn in the trend with further short cover again today.	3)	The jump in hog futures on Monday may have only been a reaction to the higher cash and cutout prices on Friday rather than a change in fundamentals.
4)	Packers are expected to be aggressive today after purchasing a limited volume of hogs on Monday. They may want to procure the hogs they need early rather than waiting until the end of the week.	4)	Hog futures will need to hold the gains of Monday, or contracts could fall back to the lows or lower without a change in fundamentals.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.