South America Calling

I mentioned last week that soil moisture across a lot of Brazil's safrinha (second-season) corn growing areas is below normal for this time of year. You can read more about that here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Some improvements were made in a few areas, including east-central areas that were well-below normal in rainfall and soil moisture, but the overall lack of deep soil moisture remains a concern for the safrinha corn crop.

Corn is rapidly developing, with early-planted corn getting into pollination over the next couple of weeks. Some of the later-planted corn will take until late April or possibly even early May. Producers count on an active wet season to build soil moisture to protect corn from damage during pollination, largely relying on the built-up soil moisture for kernel filling. In most years, this is accomplished, and a decent corn crop is harvested from the country. Yields may not stack up to those in the U.S. but are enough to make producing corn a viable second-season crop.

However, with the lower-than-normal soil moisture at the end of March, producers are hoping for an active last month of the wet season in April to get the corn on the right footing. The forecast for the month is not promising, however. Model forecasts are pointing at a significant reduction in shower intensity and coverage during the month, leading to a quicker end to the season than producers would hope for. DTN is forecasting widespread rainfall deficits across the country outside of the far south, where fronts may bring more frequent heavy rainfall. In a month that can average 100-150 millimeters (about 4-6 inches) of rainfall, DTN is calling for deficits of more than 50 millimeters (about 2 inches), especially across the main growing state of Mato Grosso. That could be as much as 50% of the normal rainfall totals that central Brazil typically sees for the month. If realized, the lack of adequate rainfall will cause corn plants to prematurely rely on the reserves, which are already limited compared to normal. To go along with the reduced rainfall, temperatures are forecast to be higher than normal as well, which is typical when rain is not falling. There is a major risk that the moisture will run out early and the corn crop could undergo significant stress during pollination and grain fill, leading to lower production.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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