Minding Ag's Business

Despite a rally in commodity prices that held steady in September, farmer sentiment continued to fall as higher input prices remained farmers' biggest concern, according to the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The barometer, a monthly survey of 400 farmers, showed 54% of producers indicated high input costs were the main factor limiting improvement in their farm's financial situation. Fewer farmers, 22%, reported they expected their farm to be better off financially a year from now, while 35% expected their farm finances to be worse.

The survey also indicated that a majority of farmers believe the country is heading down the wrong track.

The survey was conducted from Sept. 14-18, when diesel prices began reaching record highs. Diesel prices peaked at a national average of $6.53 a gallon on Sept. 22, according to AAA. Current retail diesel prices average $6.32 nationally.

Those high prices led President Donald Trump to suspend taxes and increase the use of dyed diesel fuel in highway vehicles. See "White House Pushes Dyed Diesel Relief" here:

https://www.dtnpf.com/….

The overall Ag Barometer came in at 123 points in September, down from 135 points in August. The barometer remains higher than in September 2024, when it was at a low of 88.

Despite current concerns over high inputs, the percentage of farmers who thought crop producers "would have widespread good times in the next five years" also increased from 29% in August to 40% in September. That more upbeat view could have reflected higher market moves for grain and oilseed prices in the month before the survey.

At the same time, the percentage of respondents who thought livestock producers would have good times over the next five years declined from 64% in August to 55% in September.

In a turn, a majority of farmers also said they think the country is generally headed down the wrong track. In July 2025, the barometer introduced the question, "Would you say things in the U.S. today are generally heading in the right direction or on the wrong track?" At the time, 70% or more of respondents said the country was heading in the "right direction," but that support has slid throughout 2026. In August, 51% of farmers polled said the country was heading in the right direction, but that fell to 48% in September.

Farmers also continue to have high expectations for land values. The index for long-term farmland value reached a new high at 168 this month. Producers cited alternative investments, inflation and interest rates as the three factors having the greatest influence on farmland values.

This month's barometer also included questions specifically for corn and soybean farmers.

Looking at cash rents, 22% of respondents expected cash rents to increase in 2027, while 73% expected rents to remain about the same, and just over 5% expected to see lower rents.

Among the farmers expecting a rent increase, 47% said the increase would be from zero to 5% higher.

The survey also showed approximately 46% of corn and soybean farmers currently plant cover crops, and another 22% of respondents said they had planted cover crops in the past.

Looking at exports, 37% of corn and soybean farmers expected soybean exports to increase over the next five years, while 10% expected soybean exports to decline.

The survey showed an overwhelming majority of farmers are worried about how the U.S. will compete with Brazil when it comes to soybeans. Nearly 34% of farmers were very concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans when making comparisons to Brazil. Another 46% said they are concerned about the competition. Just under 20% of farmers who responded indicated they are not concerned.

To see the full Ag Barometer report, go to https://ag.purdue.edu/….

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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