Fundamentally Speaking

This graphic shows world protein meal, vegetable oil and oilseed stocks-to-use ratios on the left-hand axis vs. world soybean meal, soybean oil and soybean stocks-to-use ratios on the right-hand axis.

Starting with total oilseeds there are seven that make up the total supply including copra, cottonseed, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, sunflower seed and then soybeans.

The latter actually constitutes 61% of total oilseed production with rapeseed 12%, peanuts 8% and cottonseed about 7% with the others accounting for the last 12%.

The 2020/21 world total oilseed stocks-to-use ratio of 26.9% is the lowest since the 2013/14 season but only 3.2% below the 20-year average of 27.8%.

The world soybean stocks-to-use ratio of 19.3% is also the lowest since the 2013/14 season but only 1.8% below the 20-year average of 19.6%.

Turning to the world protein meal stocks-to-use ratio, all oilseeds as above are included as well as fish meal.

Soybeans dominate, given they contain the highest amount of protein of any oilseed at 46%, accounting for 72% of global protein meal production with rapeseed at 11% a distant second.

This year's global protein meal stocks-to-use ratio at 3.6% is the lowest since the 2008/09 season and 26% below the 20-year average of 4.8%.

World soybean meal stocks-to-use at 3.3% is also the lowest since the 2008/09 season and 21% below the 20-year average of 4.2%.

Finally, the world vegetable oil stocks-to-use ratio has all the oilseeds but not fish oil and instead includes olive oil.

What is different here as opposed to the world oilseed or global protein meal situation is that soybean oil is not the dominant vegetable oil produced.

Palm oil accounts for 36% of world vegetable oil output with soybean oil coming in second at 29% with rapeseed or canola oil at 13% and sunflower oil at 9%.

This year's global vegetable oil stocks-to-use ratio at 6.9% is the lowest over the past 20 years and 21% below the 20-year average of 8.7%, while just the world soybean oil stocks-to-use at 9.1% is the lowest since the 2002/03 season and 16% below the 20-year average of 10.8%.

While the world oilseeds situation is tight, for the products it appears even more so.

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