Editors' Notebook

This week marks the eighth year DTN has shared a proprietary, high-tech set of yield estimates as U.S. farmers get ready for harvest of the season's corn and soybean crops. DTN has always been about providing the best information and data to farmers, ranchers and the ag industry. Historically, that's usually meant covering, analyzing and quickly sharing information created by others.

For the past two years, the DTN Digital Yield Tour has been more than that -- the yield numbers we're sharing this week are the result of DTN's own proprietary crop modeling efforts, created by our team of data scientists and agronomic experts. And as we've hinted a bit about in the past, the yield numbers, and the computer models that create them, are just the beginning of high-tech data and information that DTN is building to help our customers and readers make better business decisions.

This year we'll share yield estimates from 11 states, and started with Wisconsin and Illinois on Aug. 11:

-- "2025 Digital Yield Tour - Wisconsin," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

--"2025 Digital Yield Tour - Illinois," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

As we talked about in the 2024 yield tour, our crop models are built for those who grow and sell grain as well as for those who buy, process and use it, not simply for the broader grain markets. That's why DTN's models forecast at the field level, adding up those field-by-field estimates to create a county-wide yield estimate, which is added to other corn-producing counties to compile a yield number for the entire state.

At the moment, our crop data scientists are not creating a national average bushel-per-acre yield number, because the focus is on making those field-level and county-level figures as accurate as possible. While statistical inferences could be made to generate national estimates, DTN is still doing its due diligence on the accuracy of those methods.

If you've been a follower of ours for a while, that due diligence should come as no surprise. DTN has always understood the value of facts and well-documented information. We've always worked extra hard to shy away from rumors, knee-jerk reactions or unsubstantiated opinions. As we in the DTN newsroom often say, we're not here to be first with information, we're here to be first with correct information.

As you'll read in each tour story, our 2025 estimates are based on the output of DTN's proprietary yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks, and while they rely heavily on DTN's large amount of historical weather data, they do not incorporate weather forecasts. They reveal an estimate based on conditions as of that day; they're not a prediction about where yields could be headed. This is a critical point and should be remembered regarding any data-driven yield model. The yield estimate is based on the crop's condition at that point and what is likely to happen if conditions continue along historical averages.

A lot can happen in the future, however. We saw that in 2024 when, at this point in August, crop conditions looked strong for much of the country. Mid-August and early September then turned hotter and drier than anticipated, and in the end, the yields slipped slightly from the numbers estimated on Aug. 1.

Could we see a repeat in 2025?

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick doesn't think so. He noted this week that DTN forecasts are for continued precipitation for a broad swath of the Corn Belt throughout August. The bigger question is, will all that precipitation start doing more harm than good?

As DTN Lead Data Scientist and North Dakota farmer John Mewes said recently, the satellite imagery used in most crop models, including DTN's, is naturally looking at the top of the crop. It can't peer down into the canopy to see issues such as denitrification and lower-leaf firing, nor can it peer into the soil to discover crop root health. A problem with either of those, farmers well know, could lead to otherwise robust plants not producing the amount of grain they otherwise should.

There is more to come from DTN on those yield models and the efforts behind them. You're invited to a front-row seat on all that, as we'll make our proprietary crop yield predictions available to DTN members for the 2026 growing season. It will be an interactive experience, with members able to see weekly updates on yield at the state, county and field level.

That yield data will be found exclusively on DTN's new site that will launch in early 2026. This new site, called DTN Ag Hub for Farmers, will include DTN's agriculture news, markets commentary, weather forecasting and a number of farm operation features, such as yield predictions, agronomic models and transactional tools. If you'd like to receive updates on the new platform and get early access, you can sign up here: https://ag.dtn.com/….

As with previous Digital Yield Tours, we're not solely relying on fancy crop models. A big portion of our news team has been traveling and working the phones to talk with farmers, agronomists and others in each of the states we'll feature to get true boots-on-the-ground reporting on the crop's condition and where those individuals think 2025 yields could be heading. Our goal is to provide the most well-rounded look at crop conditions possible.

I want to thank the whole DTN/Progressive Farmer team for their efforts, and to thank the many of you who let us visit and answered those phone calls to share your thoughts and experiences to create that well-rounded view.

If I may, an aside point. If you look at our 2025 national yield estimate map, there's a lot of dark green, indicating high yield potential. But there are spots of not-so-great conditions scattered throughout that mass of green.

We hear from those farmers too, and we know there are few things worse than having a short crop in a year when overall yield production will likely lead to lower per-bushel prices. That double-whammy is hard on farm incomes and on the farmers and farm families dependent on those incomes. We're hearing stress is high in those areas, and likely to be more stressful as harvest comes.

The May 2024 issue of Progressive Farmer magazine was devoted to rural mental health. It carried a package entitled "Rays of Hope," which included multiple stories on mental health subjects and on resources for those struggling with tough times. You can find the online version of that issue here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

You can also find those and other DTN/Progressive Farmer stories on mental health subjects by using our search engine, found in the upper right corner of our public website, www.dtnpf.com, and typing "rural mental health" into the search box.

I bring all this up to note that the resources found in those pages are still viable, still valuable, to those who may be having mental struggles today.

That magazine package, by the way, just took Story of the Year honors at the recent Ag Communicators Network annual writing contest in Rogers, Arkansas. Judges praised the magazine and our team of journalists for diving into a difficult subject and for focusing not just on the problems but on the resources and on the real-world stories of those who've struggled with mental health issues and come out the other end stronger. Even more rewarding, however, is the praise we've received from the mental health world, from farm organizations and from many of you for that issue.

We don't do it for the praise. Just as we've not invested serious sums of money in crop models just to show off a set of numbers each August. We do all these things to help you and your peers make strong decisions and to make your farms and your families not just profitable but successful in every way possible.

Greg D. Horstmeier can be reached at greg.horstmeier@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @greghorstmeier

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