Ag Weather Forum

Australia is in the midst of harvesting their winter wheat and canola, on track to harvest nearly 55.1 million metric tons (mmt) of grain according to the most recent Australian Crop Report released by the Australian government's Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry. This would rank as the fifth largest winter crop to be harvested. As they continue to harvest their grain, they will likely have to dodge rain showers in eastern Australia while western areas remain on the drier side.

There are a few factors contributing to the above-average winter crop production across Australia this year. First, states such as New South Wales and Queensland planted a greater area of winter crops because conditions were favorable during planting. There were even some areas that don't normally plant winter crops that did, like northwest New South Wales. New South Wales is forecast to harvest 19.1 mmt of grain while Western Australia is expected to approach 19.4 mmt. These are the two largest wheat producing states in Australia.

Secondly, above-average winter rainfall and favorable soil moisture boosted yields in states such as New South Wales and Queensland. Queensland is expected to have its highest total production of winter crops on record, reaching nearly 3.6 mmt. While moisture was favorable for developing and maturing winter crops, rainfall at harvest time is a bit more burdensome. Over the past 30 days, the main growing areas in Queensland and New South Wales have been plagued with above-average precipitation.

Looking ahead at the forecast through the rest of December, more fronts are expected to provide rounds of showers through at least mid-December in eastern Australia. This will likely cause some slowdowns for wheat and canola harvest in eastern areas like Queensland and New South Wales. After the middle of the month, below-average precipitation is favored to expand north from Victoria and expand into New South Wales and southeast Queensland. The below-average precipitation could mean a favorable stretch for harvest progress to continue without producers having to worry about dodging consistent, heavy showers. By the end of December, near-average precipitation is favored as more fronts will start drifting through eastern areas again.

In Western Australia, showers have been limited, and precipitation has been around 10 millimeters below average in the far southwest in the past 15 days. Persistent dryness has led to harvest progress remaining on track, but they could be in for a pattern change over the next few weeks. Above-average precipitation is forecast into mid-December as more frequent fronts could pass through the state. Even if precipitation ends up being above average, they still have plenty of time to harvest their grain. Wheat harvest in Australia can begin as soon as October and last through February. Barley has a shorter harvest window, typically beginning in October or November and lasting into January.

Even with the potential weather pattern changes through the rest of December, Australia could still break records with their 2024-25 winter harvest. With wheat production estimated to come in at 31.9 mmt this winter, that equates to 20% above the 10-year average. Barley won't be quite as impressive, but it is still expected to be above the 10-year average at 11.7 mmt. Current predictions from the Australian government suggest Queensland could reach a total of 3.6 mmt of winter grain harvested, which would be the highest production level on record, according to their Australian Crop Report. The full Australian Crop Report can be found here: https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/…

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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