Ag Weather Forum

Hurricane Debby made landfall early Monday morning in the Big Bend area of Florida as a Category 1 storm. Debby produced a ton of rain over Florida and then into southeastern Georgia and South Carolina as it weakened into a tropical storm. The storm is a slow mover, likely taking until Friday to move through the Carolinas and then up the East Coast this weekend.

In its path, Debby will leave behind massive rainfall totals and flooding. Forecasts of widespread 10-20 inches of rain and some areas in southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas seeing more than that could lead to historic flooding during the next few days and a poor end for some of the farmers in the region.

Many in the Southeast have gone through huge swings in soil moisture during the course of the last couple of months. Heat and drought building in June and early July caused conditions to drastically fall for corn and cotton, but wetter stretches during the last couple of weeks have allowed some of the corn and much of the cotton to reverse course and improve.

Conditions from the USDA NASS Crop Progress report showed a steady decline in corn conditions in North Carolina from 83% rated as good to excellent on June 2 down to a low of just 9% on July 14. Recent rains have bumped that up to 20% as of Aug. 4. That is not great, but a decent turnaround for a crop that endured a tough stretch during the most important period for yield development. Cotton fared better. Across Georgia, South and North Carolina, and Virginia, cotton conditions fell to their lowest-rated levels in late June and early July (55%, 41%, 32% and 49%, respectively), but have vastly improved with the recent rains. As of Aug. 4, good-to-excellent ratings for cotton have climbed to 67%, 52%, 63% and 66%, respectively.

North Carolina has been the big winner thus far in the turnaround. A state that was touched by widespread D1-D2 drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor no longer contains any drought outside of a small section in the north-central portion of the state where some corn and soybeans are grown. According to USDA data, just 6% of North Carolina's corn is currently in drought while none of the cotton is. That is a reduction from 87% of the state's corn and 97% of the state's cotton at the peak of the drought.

But then comes Tropical Storm Debby. Its heavy rainfall forecast threatens to wash out a lot of the progress that has been made back in the region, leading to quality issues and increased disease pressure to go along with drowning the plants. Usually, tropical storm force winds are not an issue outside of the coasts or right around the center. And the 40 mph winds that the storm currently is rated to have for the peak winds as of 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday are very limited to near the center. Winds swirling around the region are only in the 10-20 mph range. However, the storm is forecast to move into the Atlantic on Tuesday and could strengthen, increasing the winds and the wind field of stronger winds across more of the region during the next few days. With very wet soils, more widespread winds near 30 or 40 mph may potentially cause damage due to root lodging. And cotton with open bolls, which are just starting, could face quality issues. What looked to be a nice turnaround in crop conditions the last couple of weeks is trending back down again, not because of a lack of rain, but because of too much of it.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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