Production Blog

Kansas farmer Paul Penner welcomed 5 inches of snow Feb. 25 on top of the foot he received only a week before. The moisture offered cautious hope.

Higher-than-normal moisture from such big storms that rolled through the Southern Plains in February, and higher-than-expected snowfall in the western Midwest this past weekend, offer temporary relief from a drought that has stretched two to three years in some areas.

Meanwhile, heavy rains have raised the Mississippi River and other rivers to near flood stage this week in Illinois, Missouri and Iowa.

When the next U.S. Drought Monitor map comes out Thursday morning, it is expected to show the storms of the last few weeks have been of some benefit. However, farmers make it clear a few good storms in the wheat and corn belts offer only temporary relief from drought.

Penner, second vice president of the National Association of Wheat Growers, said the storms in his area didn't affect the drought. His farm near Hillsboro, Kan., is on the edge of the exceptional drought boundary. "The only way we can alter that designation is a more normal rainfall pattern, normally 32 inches of rain a year." Last year, his fields got a half inch to 4 inches from June 1 until the end of the growing season, then 6 to 8 inches after that.

Penner planted a wheat crop, which hadn't broken dormancy as of two weeks ago. When it happens soon and gets warmer, if the drought continues, the crop "could go downhill very fast in my area," he stressed.

In some other areas of the Southern and Central Plains, wheat broke dormancy earlier in February. More wheat is breaking dormancy as March continues, especially with some warmer weather expected this week.

The U.S. Drought Monitor for March 5 (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu) still showed a lot of exceptional and extreme drought designations for the Plains and western Midwest. The majority of the wheat areas and western Corn Belt are highlighted with moderate or worse drought.

In an interview with the Associated Press March 11, National Climatic Data Center scientist Mike Brewer said the most recent storm helped by hitting the worst drought areas, but he still warned, "It's helping to mitigate the impacts of the drought ... but it's not necessarily helping the agricultural side of things right now. It's not getting into the soil, where it needs to go."

Meteorologist Andrew Thut, who works for our company's energy division, posted in a March 10 blog an interesting perspective on "What will it take to alleviate the central U.S. drought" (http://bit.ly/…). Thut wrote, "Many locations may need a solid 6-9 inches of precipitation. That will be a tough obstacle to overcome. Take Wichita, Kan., for example. They saw below average precipitation for nine consecutive months, from May through January. That streak finally ended in February as they got walloped by two major storms toward the end of the month.

"Those storms will likely come back through the pattern during the spring, but it will take more rain opportunities to get the job done. When major storms roll through, the rainfall can be too much of a good thing. The soil will only be able to take so much moisture and the rest will runoff. That's why more frequent rains will be necessary," Thut said.

People who have drilled fencepost holes or dug with backhoes in the last few weeks know well how much more rain is needed. Farmers have expressed concern how little subsoil moisture there has been past the top foot or so.

Curtis Vap, of Newkirk, Okla., is also on NAWG's Board of Directors. He grows wheat in a no-till rotation with milo, soybeans, corn and cotton. He said in the period May 1 last year until late January this year, his area was 16 inches below normal rainfall. In November, he got a half inch of rain, enough for his wheat to germinate and get up out of the ground, "which was fortunate, because in a lot of places, they never got their wheat germinated." Vap said his crop looked actually pretty good with the rain and the recent February snowfalls. "But we're going to have to get moisture -- the subsoil was nonexistent."

So if the subsoil moisture was so grim last fall, and some farmers already experienced two or more years of drought, why did they plant wheat late last year?

Vap explained he put in some wheat in October, waited to get a shower and when he saw the wheat come up, he planted the rest in November. He fertilized the wheat to get it emerged. It did. But as it was just sitting there, "we knew it didn't have any subsoil moisture."

Vap said he was worried that if he didn't get moisture when the wheat came out of dormancy, the crop wouldn't last very long. But in mid-February, the crop started to grow, and some moisture came.

Vap has hope for this crop, but the drought's effects are never far from his mind. He recalled how drought on his fields started in the fall of 2010: He ended up with a short, dry crop which mostly failed after a hot summer.

In the fall/winter of 2011, there was some decent moisture to help the next crop grow, but then by May the rains cut off. A hot summer led to crops just a little better than the year before on his dryland fields. In an area where the average is 34-36 bushels an acre, his crop yielded "somewhere in the 20s."

While Vap sees his area still in a drought in 2013, he plans to go ahead with planting his first corn in late March or early April, his milo in the second half of April, cotton by mid-May, and soybeans around June 1. "We haven't changed our plans yet." He said the diversity in his summer crops and spring planting dates helps him to diversify for the weather. Vap is leaning toward more acres of milo than corn, since it's a bit more drought tolerant.

Gary Millershaski, of Lakin, Kan., also planted into fields hit hard by drought. He decided to plant less seed, however: "My goal was I'd rather have a crop than raise a flop ... By backing off my seed, I'm losing my upward potential for a bumper crop. In years past, if you plant too much and lose all the moisture before reproduction ... you'd end up with a sub-average crop."

Penner figured farmers may change their soybean acreage to corn, or corn to sorghum, because of concerns on dryness. As for him, Penner made a decision to accept the risk and stick with his original planting plans with wheat and other crops. "It's prudent, it's wise. To change the mix too drastically will risk losing a certain market later on." If the drought continues, "if we don't plant soybeans and corn, we might have favorable (market price) runs, if others don't have crops."

Penner explained one of the reasons he keeps planting wheat. "Farmers are eternal optimists, as Mother Nature continues doing what Mother Nature does ... they realize drought is part of the process. They stick to wisdom. If you change a program too drastically, you might not benefit from the next round of favorable weather."

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino stressed the importance of timeliness in moisture, not just the amounts. He said if the crop gets moisture and it's timely, such as another 2-3 inches in March, "We could still see a very good crop."

Palmerino said the recent moisture during one of the driest times of the year "will clearly help the crops, they will have at least a shot and more moisture when they break dormancy ... you give it enough moisture to support itself and it flourishes in the early stages."

It's that hope that keeps Penner, Vap and Millershaski scanning the horizon for more rain clouds as spring draws nearer.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@telventdtn.com

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