Ag Weather Forum

Prairies Start Nov. Cold, Then Warm Up

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

The first week of November is expected to begin on a colder note for Western Canada. Temperatures trend towards normal or below normal as we move through the early and middle part of the week. There may be some light precipitation during this period, but probably nothing of significance.

We see a weak-to-moderate upper level trough tracking across that pulls down somewhat colder weather from the north during this time frame. A weak-to-moderate surface high should lead to the colder trend for the first part of the week. There is a slight difference between the weather models as it concerns this time frame. The U.S. model appears to be the coldest of the models while the European model is the warmest and the Canadian model is somewhere in the middle. I would favor a middle-of-the-road solution during this time frame, somewhat like the Canadian model suggests.

The longer-range outlook is even more uncertain today. The European model suggests a significant warm-up late in the week and during the weekend as the main jet stream lifts north of the Canadian Prairies crop belt. This allows for warmer or much-warmer-than-normal temperatures and a continued drier trend.

The U.S. model features a secondary surface high that may maintain the colder bias to the weather pattern into the late week before a somewhat warmer trend takes hold. This model also suggests an increase in the threat of precipitation as the region turns warmer late in the week and during the weekend.

The Canadian model features more of an upper level trough over the area during the middle of the week and a stronger surface high dropping down from northwest Canada at the end of the week. If this model were to verify it would suggest a somewhat higher risk for precipitation during the mid-week period and a colder trend towards the end of the period.

It is a difficult call today on which solution to use as it concerns the end of next week and next weekend. I would have to give the edge today to the solution trends in the direction of what we would expect during a typical El Nino year. This leads me to use a little more of today's European model with the idea of a warmer and drier trend for the end of next week and next weekend. However, as you can see from above this forecast would be issued with some uncertainty.

(ES)

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