Ag Weather Forum

Winter is certainly on vacation across the prime cropland of Western Canada as we move into late January. Temperatures during the first 10 days of the month were mostly below and at times well below normal leading us to believe that we were in for another bitter cold winter like last year.

What a difference more recently: Temperatures during the most recent 10 days have averaged above to at times well above normal and have pretty much wiped out any negative temperature departure that was built up during the first third of the month.

Many areas have seen little precipitation, a theme started during December. The westerly flow of air coming down off the Rocky Mountains is mostly dry with any precipitation light and not widespread. Mid-winter is normally the driest time of year, but since December began we have seen low amounts even by Western Canada standards.

Snow cover lags behind normal for most of the region with only Alberta pretty much on par with what we might expect for mid-winter. Most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba have only a few inches (5 to 20 centimeters) of snow on the ground, while Alberta locations are reporting totals of 6 to 18 inches (15 to 45 cm).

Most of our weather models that forecast out into the middle of February show only minor changes to the pattern that has evolved during the past week or so. A well-established ridge at upper levels across western parts of the U.S. and southwest Canada should keep temperatures at above and even well above normal most of the time.

We cannot rule out that a burst or two of much colder weather reaches the Prairies during the next few weeks since very cold air will be lying in wait across northern and eastern Canada. It would only take a subtle shift in the jet stream pattern to deliver some of this cold air into Western Canada but the overall weather pattern should keep any cold intrusion brief.

A trough in the upper levels will remain across eastern Canada with a polar vortex expected to cycle about through Quebec. The temperature pattern for eastern Canada during the next few weeks looks very cold with arctic air being featured.

Precipitation prospects for the Prairies do not look promising anytime soon. Weak clipper lows will pass mostly to the north of the region and bring little more than a few brief bouts of snow showers. Manitoba might see a little more action as storms track right through the province.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@dtn.com

(ES)

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