DTN Oil Update
Oil Futures Rebound Amid Trade War Escalation
TACOMA, Wash. (DTN) -- Oil futures settled higher to close the week on Friday, despite China announcing steep new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, escalating trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.
WTI crude for May delivery settled at $61.69 bbl, up $1.63 from the previous session, while ICE Brent June futures climbed $1.58 to $64.92bbl.
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May RBOB futures gained 4.78cts to settle at $2,0097 gallon, and May ULSD rose 2.48cts to $2.0713 gallon.
The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.90 points to 99.710, continuing its downward trend.
The gains in oil came despite China's Customs Tariff Commission announced that it would impose retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. imports, a move that follows the United States' own 125% tariff hike on Chinese imported goods earlier in the week.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the increase includes an additional 84% levy atop earlier rounds of 10% tariffs introduced in February and March.
The latest escalation in trade hostilities has raised fears of a global economic slowdown and potential recession in the United States, compounding downward pressure from existing supply and demand concerns.
Thursday, April 10, the Energy Information Administration lowered its crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing global demand uncertainty, OPEC+ output increases, and tariff-driven market disruption.
The agency now expects WTI to average $64 bbl in 2025 and $57 bbl in 2026, down from previous forecasts of $71 and $65 bbl, respectively. Brent is forecast to average $68 bbl in 2025 and $61 bbl in 2026, both reduced from prior estimates.
Separately, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.4% in March, seasonally adjusted, following a 0.1% increase in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The figure was below market expectations of a 0.2% increase.
The March decline was primarily driven by a 0.9% drop in prices for final demand goods, the largest monthly decrease since October 2023. Within that category, the index for final demand energy fell 4.0%, with gasoline prices tumbling 11.1%. Prices for final demand foods also declined by 2.1%.
