DTN Weekly Oil Update

VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil futures closest to expiration on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange edged higher Monday morning while the U.S. dollar slipped as speculators positioned themselves ahead of a series of macroeconomic indicators set to be released this week which will help gauge the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy.

More signs of U.S. consumers pulling back on spending emerged last week, with the Census Bureau reporting core retail sales last month unexpectedly declined from April and revising lower April's figure. While only a month ago, half of investors expected the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at their September meeting, close to two thirds now expect the first 25-basis point cut according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Key indicators on U.S. economic health and potential growth trajectories are due this week. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for June is set to be released Tuesday, followed by the final print for first quarter GDP growth Thursday. The Bureau of Economic Analysis last month revised lower the already disappointing 1.6% GDP growth estimate to 1.3%, year-on-year. Friday will see the release of the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric. PCE price inflation has slightly accelerated in the second quarter, with core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, proving extremely resilient this year at 2.8%. A slowdown in core PCE inflation will reinforce expectations around a September rate cut.

Near 7:55 a.m. EDT, WTI futures for August delivery were trading near $81.05 barrel (bbl), up $0.32, and Brent for August delivery hovered around $85.60 bbl, up $0.36. RBOB for July was down $0.0024 gal near $2.5113, and ULSD for July delivery gained $0.0105 gallon, trading near $2.5020.

Karim Bastati can be reached at karim.bastati@dtn.com