View From the Cab

DECATUR, Ill. (DTN) -- An afternoon spent riding motorcycles with the kids was just what Dan Lakey needed last week. Then, a dark cloud descended.

Of all the four-letter words known to farmers, hail must be the ugliest. The canola was close to being ready to harvest and did not weather the storm well. While wild weather is nothing new for the southeastern Idaho farmer, it still hurts.

"Late July and early-to-mid August is a common time for hail here," said Lakey, who farms near Soda Springs. "Last year we lost 1000 acres of malt barley, 120 acres of canola and 200 acres of wheat -- all to hail. We didn't even cut it."

Quint Pottinger reported in this week as part of DTN's View from the Cab project while repairing a tile line. Several inches of rain found his central Kentucky farm this past week and while it had caused a mess in a couple of areas, he wasn't complaining because the crops were slurping up the moisture.

To say these two farmers have had a weather rollercoaster season so far might be an understatement. Since they began reporting in May, there have been floods, drought, frost, heat and more than a few hail Marys.

This week the farmers give an update on how crops are faring (or not) and discuss their views on new technology, specifically autonomous equipment. And just for fun, there's a nod to summer eating.

QUINT POTTINGER: NEW HAVEN, KENTUCKY

With the water table just beginning to fill again after a dry June, Pottinger isn't ready to wish rain away just yet. The 3 inches that fell this past week didn't last long with temperatures blazing.

The forecast for the coming week is a little cloudy, noted DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. "The week starts off hot again with temperatures in the 90s, but a front should be coming into or through the region and stalling somewhere nearby.

"Models have not had a very good handle on it, but I'm counting on it passing through. Temperatures should take a nice step back into the 80s but could be in the low end or upper end depending on which model is closer to reality. And that may change throughout the week. That front should bring some chances for rain through as well, but models are staying curiously drier in Kentucky, bringing showers to the north, south, and west at various portions as of this writing. My guess is it will be wetter than the models are currently predicting since the models have not been very reliable recently," Baranick said.

To call the crop in this region variable would be an understatement, Pottinger noted. "We have some corn fields that will probably yield in the low 100s (bushels per acre). And we have good soils that have caught a rain that could go 200 (bpa). Based on what we've scouted, and the rainfall received over the past two weeks, I've raised our whole farm expected yield from 140 to 160 (bpa)."

Pottinger said they've noticed a few pollination issues. Southern rust has been identified in neighboring counties but seems to be sitting there. Tar spot is showing up, but incidences seem light and much of the corn is already at R4 maturity. "Our agronomist wants us to apply fungicide to late-planted corn to give it some protection," he said.

This week he was also gearing up to apply more fungicide to soybeans. He already has the product in paid inventory and late-planted beans have really started to take off after the recent rains. "I've never sprayed fungicide on June beans before, but we're going to protect them and see what happens," he said.

"The markets are bad, so let's make bushels," he added.

While weather and pests can be problematic, Pottinger said deer cost the farm big in terms of losses. It's a problem he's especially concerned about since receiving a letter that crop insurance coverage will be reduced for those who have filed wildlife loss claims two years in a row.

"We have found that if you have wheat on a farm very many years, it attracts the wildlife," he said. "Our wheat traditionally has been planted on our upper ground and follows the streams and forested areas. We may have to rethink planting strategies. I'm honestly not sure what to do to prevent it."

When it comes to future technology, Pottinger is most excited about the potential for satellite imagery or remote sensing using light to detect agronomic conditions. The idea would be to monitor and understand plant health.

He's not as certain about the future for full-scale autonomous tractors where he lives. Keep in mind field sizes here are small (27-acre average) and irregularly shaped. "When I think of autonomous, I think of individual row units or robots that you drop off however many you need at the field. They would be metered and individually programmed to sense soil conditions and plant accordingly -- maybe they are ganged together or not. Same with spraying -- it's going to follow those same tracks and determine what is a plant or a weed," he said.

"I'm not sure that's where the investment is right now, but I think that would be cool because then you could really target everything to each individual seed," he said.

Current autonomous efforts appear to be aimed at larger scale acreages that are mapped, he noted. He's not sure that will work for his fields that have waterways and knolls and knobs. When he looks into the future, poly-cropping seems to have merit and, in those systems, smaller robot-like machines make more sense, especially if diagnostics become good enough to detect plant conditions before they even show up in a tissue sample.

"If this lackluster farm economy is as it was in the 2010s, then I wonder if the investment will be there," he added.

A rainstorm and the dog days of summer are a good time to dream about what might come. It's been a hectic summer with planting delays and spray applications forced into smaller windows.

While Pottinger and his wife, Leah, like to hop in the Jeep and scout crops, sometimes the night closes in too fast. "During the summer, I'll often say let's go to Bardstown and get ice cream. I don't like sweets very much, but for some reason a night drive and ice cream in the summer are a nice treat," he said.

DAN LAKEY: SODA SPRINGS, IDAHO

It's burgers on the grill or a brisket on the smoker at the Lakey household this time of year.

It's been hot enough to cook something on the sidewalk of late. After a few days break from the heat last week (July 27-31), Baranick said the region could break some heat records during the weekend. "While not consistently hot all week long, temperatures are going to remain above normal. A spotty shower or two may cruise by, but it's likely to stay dry there," he added.

Lakey's crops did receive some moisture this past week. He got up to an inch in spots, but zero in others. "The areas that needed the rain the worst were missed. We did receive some hail damage on some of our best-looking winter wheat fields and had about 100 acres of winter canola ruined," Lakey said.

"The damage to the wheat isn't too bad from what we've inspected -- maybe 5% to 10% loss, but in a drought year and low commodity price year ever decrease in revenue is painful."

The hail was also accompanied by some 50-plus mile per hour winds that helped shelled tiny canola seeds out of the pod.

"Our malt barley sustained spotty hail damage. I've spent the better part of the week on the phone and in the field with the insurance adjusters," he said.

With farming operations spread over 50-odd miles, Lakey likes the ideas of more sensors or technology that could alert him to problems. Having said that, there's not a lot you can do to protect against violent weather swings.

"We have nearby ambient weather stations that allow us to hop on the app and see the real time data from stations close to us. That's helpful," he said. He's hoping that other tools, such as John Deere's Operation Center continue to expand offerings such as comprehensive weather analysis and improved NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index).

"I'm a true believer of boots on the ground agronomy and walking your fields. I have learned more from walking in the fields, observing, and sticking a shovel in the soil than I ever have in a classroom or seminar.

"Looking forward, we are partnering with the University of Idaho to insert soil moisture probes into our fields that have been harvested using a stripper header to determine if my assertion of 'more snow moisture retention' is factual or just anecdotal," Lakey added.

He's had the opportunity to test autonomous farm equipment more than 10 years ago. It was futuristic then but remains in the realm of "new possibilities" today.

"There are lots of neat applications where autonomous equipment can be utilized. I see that tech benefitting many farms. I'm not sure if all of it is applicable here, but even running programs that synch machines as we unload, for example, has me realizing how awesome some of the tech is," he said.

"But just with anything, margins are tight, and a lot of the newer tech offers some increased ease of harvest, but it comes at a large cost. I'm not sure that many farmers in this current ag economy are willing to shell out more coin for some added convenience.

"In fact, I'm not sure if we might not see a bit of a pullback in the adoption of this kind of tech in the next few years. Time will tell," Lakey said.

Along with that profit squeeze comes the need to get more frugal in other ways, such as equipment repairs. "We repaired 100% of our equipment up until about 20 years ago. When the tech started increasing, we were forced to start relying on dealer techs a little more," Lakey said.

Dealership charges have been increasing, he noted. Plus, there's the added cost of the per mile service call. "That can add hundreds of dollars to our bill due to our location. We will be relying much more upon our own repair skills and more on independently owned repair services. We just cannot simply keep affording a $5,000 repair bill for the dealership to come out to our farm."

Pamela Smith can be reached at Pamela.smith@dtn.com

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