Governors, Groups See Trade Optimism

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (DTN) -- The Trump administration's top agricultural negotiator on trade told members, agribusiness and commodity groups that officials recognize the need to get trade deals in place before the fall harvest ramps up.

Julie Callahan, President Donald Trump's nominee to be the lead agricultural trade negotiator at the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, has the current job title as assistant agricultural negotiator in the office.

Callahan spoke Wednesday in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, at the Midwest Agricultural Export Summit, which has become an annual event in the state to bring in leaders from the government and commodity groups for the daylong event. Callahan said the agricultural trade deficit is a major driver in pressing countries to provide market access.

"The $50 billion ag deficit is on the top of everyone's mind, and harvest season is also at the top of everyone's mind," she said.

Callahan added, "We all know harvest season is not going to wait and we don't want to wait."

One caveat to trade deals is that agriculture must be part of every negotiation, she said. Countries come in and say they want a deal, but they maintain agriculture is "sensitive" and should be excluded.

"That's really not going to be sufficient for them to get a deal across the finish line," Callahan said.

AG EXPORTS NEED BOOST

Agricultural exports need a boost right now. The agricultural trade deficit grew in the first half of the year by more than $10 billion. Exports are down 2% in value in 2025, while agricultural imports are up more than 8%, according to USDA's latest figures.

Despite the tariffs in place by countries such as China and lower export sales, the mood from officials and commodity leaders at the event was upbeat. They see strong sale opportunities ahead in new markets for agriculture with deals being reached by the Trump administration.

Overall, agricultural exports are down 2% in calendar year 2025. While the new marketing year for corn and soybeans begins in September, China has yet to lock any purchases of new-crop soybeans.

TARIFF POLICIES AND EXPORT DEALS

South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden, a Republican, opened the meeting. He said he has been frequently asked by the press about pressure on the agricultural industry over the president's tariff policies. He noted a high percentage of South Dakota farmers support Trump because the 2018-19 trade war led to better export deals.

"There is an underlying trust, and they believe we will come out better," Rhoden said. "And sure enough, we see trade deals with the U.K. (United Kingdom), Japan and China. I think it's becoming more and more apparent that ag will benefit, and more importantly the United States of America will benefit from the deals that Trump has put together."

Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen, also a Republican, said he supported the president using tariffs to gain leverage. Pillen said high tariffs in Asian countries hurt the U.S. auto industry. "You don't see an American-made automobile in Japan or South Korea." He also noted Brazil has a strong market sending beef to the U.S., but that trade is not reciprocal. "We can't sell one hoof of beef in Brazil today and they export beef to us. So those are the things in trade that we need fixed so we can have fair trade."

U.K. ACCESS

The event included a panel discussion with the U.S. ambassador from Kenya as well as embassy officials from the U.K. and India.

Richard Hyde, consul general for the U.K., talked about his country's deal with the U.S. reached in May, saying the agricultural aspects of the deal were not popular in his country. The U.K. deal removed a 19% tariff on U.S. ethanol and a 20% tariff on beef. The deal calls for the U.K. to buy 370 million gallons of ethanol -- about $700 million.

"The ethanol piece is really difficult for us," Hyde said. "We have domestic ethanol producers who not massively happy with the fact that we now have this quota from the U.S."

Hyde said U.S. sellers will need to develop the market in England going forward. "Educating U.K. consumers about what American food and agricultural products mean is a big, big part of the job," he said.

SELLING AMERICAN MADE PRODUCTS

Luke Lindberg, a South Dakota native, was confirmed earlier this month as the USDA undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. He noted the One Big Beautiful Bill Act doubled funding for USDA's trade promotion programs. He encouraged groups to start putting together trade missions to markets such as the U.K. as soon as possible to further develop those relationships. He pointed to the zero tariff on bison meat in the U.K. as a market South Dakota could tap. He also noted Japan had agreed to buy $4.5 billion more in agricultural products.

"There are opportunities on the table right now that did not exist six months ago." He added, "We need farmers and ranchers to get on the airplane to make sure these opportunities happen."

ACCESS HELPS MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation, noted the importance of market development depends on getting access through trade agreements. He said the biggest customers for beef and pork have trade agreements with the U.S. Right now, China has delisted 400 U.S. beef plants, which has greatly limited access to the market. He also stressed diversification to pivot away from China. Spotlighting demand, Halstrom pointed to boxed beef prices at $390 and pork cutout values at $115-$120.

"That means that ... demand is retrograde, even with higher prices," Halstrom said. He added, "We have a gold standard reputation in the world and we're seeing that today."

The commitments to buy beef in the U.K., along with deals in Japan and Indonesia are all starting points for further ramping up demand, Halstrom said. He said there are some further non-tariff complications, such as halal requirements in Indonesia, but that's still a $75 million opportunity for higher sales in that country. "We're very excited about the potential going forward," he said.

Jaime Castanada, executive vice president for policy for the National Milk Producers Federation and U.S. Dairy Export Council, pointed out U.S. dairy farmers produce more milk per cow than any other country. The U.S. also exports 18% to 19% of every pound of milk produced. Castanada said dairy producers need more access to countries such as Taiwan and Japan, as well as the European Union. The EU has been a long-time frustration for the dairy industry, and he encouraged the administration to keep pressing for the EU to loosen its non-tariff barriers. "They only way to deal with those people is leverage. You need to start a trade war," Castanada said. "Europe will never agree to open their market."

India is another country with great market potential, but Castanada said the dairy industry there is protectionist and uses propaganda and misinformation to discredit U.S. dairy production practices.

DEALS, DETAILS STILL NEEDED

In announcing deals, Castanada also noted the Trump administration provides few details on the specifics of market access negotiated. "We still have yet to see a lot of details on the many, many announcements," he said.

Callahan acknowledged administration officials recognize some "frustration" about the lack of details from final deals that have been announced.

Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC), noted as much as 60% of raw soybeans, meal and oil are exported. Sales to other countries outside of China are growing, but there still remains no substitute for the Chinese market. "Sometimes things are a blessing and a curse," he said in an interview. "But we're so dependent on Asian markets and China and that's why we're trying to diversify into a lot of other markets aside from China."

Trump earlier this week granted another 90-day extension to reach a deal with China. On social media, Trump also called on China to "quadruple" imports of U.S. soybeans. That post on Sunday night led to a quick 23-cent bump in November soybeans futures contract.

"When I saw the Truth Social post from President Trump about soybeans, that really gave me some optimism that maybe something was going to happen," he said.

Sutter said he remains optimistic there will be a deal with China, but he also pointed out the need to get a deal soon. A full 90-day delay before any agreement would be too late for farmers delivering new beans to the elevator.

"We've been saying that we really need to get this in place by harvest," Sutter said. "Ninety days from now we'll be in November and harvest will be almost history."

Cash bids in parts of South Dakota right now show corn bids under $3 a bushel and soybeans under $9.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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