DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Fertilizer Prices' Upward Momentum Driven by Tariffs, Demand

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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The average retail DAP prices increased more than $100/ton from last month, or 21%, to $605/ton. The phosphorus fertilizer is 48% more expensive than last year. (DTN Chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail prices of all eight major fertilizers were significantly higher for the fourth week in a row, according to prices tracked by DTN for the fourth week of February 2021.

DTN considers a price move of 5% or more to be significant. This week, DAP had the highest price increase at 21% while potash had the smallest at 8%.

DAP, at $605/ton, led the way higher once again this week.

Urea and UAN32 were both 15% more expensive compared to last month. Urea had an average price of $464/ton while UAN32 was at $296/ton.

Both MAP and UAN28 were up 14% compared to the prior month. MAP had an average price of $661/ton while UAN28 was at $250/ton.

Anhydrous was 11% higher while 10-34-0 was up 9% and potash was 8% more expensive. Anhydrous had an average price of $544/ton, 10-34-0 $532/ton and potash $408/ton.

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On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.50/lb.N, anhydrous $0.33/lb.N, UAN28 $0.45/lb.N and UAN32 $0.46/lb.N.

In the most recent edition of the North American Agribusiness Review, RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness reported on the rapidly increasing phosphorus (P) fertilizer prices. The situation started in June 2020 with Mosaic filing a petition to request a countervailing duty investigation into imports from Morocco and Russia (https://www.dtnpf.com/…).

DTN's data shows DAP prices have increased $200/ton while MAP prices jumped an average of $233/ton since that time.

This situation was met with net imports of P significantly below year-ago levels in the summer, and then corn and soybeans prices began to rise in August. Strong international P fertilizer demand and lower global P utilization rates worked to tighten the market more.

"The seasonal component gives precedent to suggest that prices will likely remain at an elevated level over the coming weeks and months," the RaboResearch report said. "However, global utilization rates are likely to increase over the coming second and third quarter time period, and we could see prices level off and potentially lower in that time frame."

Higher grain prices, along with the recent ruling concerning countervailing duties, are likely to provide a price floor to North American P prices, according to RaboResearch. However, it sees lower P fertilizer prices in the second half of the year.

With retail fertilizer prices moving higher over recent months, all fertilizers are now higher in price from a year ago.

Both UAN28 and UAN32 are now 7% more expensive, potash is 10% higher, anhydrous is 11% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 14% higher, urea is 27% more expensive, DAP is 48% higher and MAP is 52% more expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Feb 24-28 2020 409 434 371 366
Mar 23-27 2020 409 434 370 382
Apr 20-24 2020 410 433 370 385
May 18-22 2020 409 434 367 387
Jun 15-19 2020 405 429 363 360
Jul 13-17 2020 406 428 361 359
Aug 10-14 2020 426 434 353 355
Sep 7-Sep 11, 2020 434 445 345 360
Oct 5-9 2020 441 466 335 361
Nov 2-6 2020 447 479 331 358
Nov 30-Dec 4 2020 455 499 340 359
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021 475 537 366 367
Jan 25-29 2021 500 580 379 405
Feb 22-26 2021 605 661 408 464
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Feb 24-28 2020 466 490 235 277
Mar 23-27 2020 466 491 235 278
Apr 20-24 2020 468 492 236 279
May 18-22 2020 469 490 237 280
Jun 15-19 2020 468 464 233 273
Jul 13-17 2020 468 460 225 263
Aug 10-14 2020 465 447 221 259
Sep 7-Sep 11, 2020 459 434 216 253
Oct 5-9 2020 457 424 209 250
Nov 2-6 2020 455 423 208 248
Nov 30-Dec 4 2020 459 427 208 249
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021 464 470 209 250
Jan 25-29 2021 489 489 220 258
Feb 22-26 2021 532 544 250 296

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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Russ Quinn