DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to move lower the fourth week of December 2019, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. This several-months-long trend appears set to continue into the new year.

All eight of the major fertilizers were lower in price from the month earlier, but once again, none were substantially lower. DTN designates a significant price move as 5% or more.

DAP had an average price of $443 per ton, MAP $454/ton, potash $377/ton, urea $378/ton, 10-34-0 $469/ton, anhydrous $488/ton, UAN28 $240/ton and UAN32 $276/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.41/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.43/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

With retail fertilizer prices on the decline for several months now, fertilizer retailers are looking forward to where prices could go into the new year. Prices could be fairly steady, retailers report.

Fred Butt, sales agronomist for Donovan Farmers Coop located in Donovan, Illinois, said spring will tell the story of how much anhydrous moves. Some were not being able to apply the fertilizer in the fall due to crops still in the field or wet field conditions.

Despite this potential issue, Butt said he doesn't believe nitrogen prices will move much come spring.

"Anhydrous retail is around the $500s, and UAN is around $0.45/lb. cost of nitrogen with little to drive it up or down," Butt said.

Butt said DAP prices have fallen so much that the Mosaic Company has seen its shares drop on the stock market despite plant shutdowns. (Last week's column had information about this situation: https://www.dtnpf.com/…) Longer term, P will probably trade pretty steadily, even into the spring, he said.

Much like N and P, potash prices will most likely be fairly steady as we head toward spring, as well, Butt added.

"When was the last time P and potash have sold for mostly the same money?" he asked.

Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP is 15% lower, anhydrous is 14% less expensive, DAP is 13% lower, UAN28 is 10% less expensive, UAN32 is 9% lower, urea is 7% lower and potash is 1% less expensive from last year at this time. In addition, 10-34-0 is 3% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Dec 24-28 2018	507	533	379	407
Jan 21-25 2019	512	535	383	409
Feb 18-22 2019	512	536	385	404
Mar 18-22 2019	509	533	386	401
Apr 15-19 2019	504	531	388	404
May 13-17 2019	498	526	392	426
Jun 10-14 2019	497	527	392	434
Jul 8-12, 2019	497	532	392	431
Aug 5-9 2019	495	531	395	428
Sep 2-6 2019	491	488	387	408
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019	476	474	384	404
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019	464	472	383	402
Nov 25-29 2019	456	465	381	386
Dec 23-27 2019	443	454	377	378
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Dec 24-28 2018	457	568	266	303
Jan 21-25 2019	467	584	270	313
Feb 18-22 2019	470	596	271	317
Mar 18-22 2019	470	597	270	318
Apr 15-19 2019	481	594	270	317
May 13-17 2019	487	595	267	311
Jun 10-14 2019	487	591	271	314
Jul 8-12, 2019	485	585	276	317
Aug 5-9 2019	491	580	272	320
Sep 2-6 2019	473	522	255	290
Sep 30-Oct 4, 2019	470	511	253	289
Oct 28-Nov 1 2019	468	503	251	291
Nov 25-29 2019	472	497	245	277
Dec 23-27 2019	469	488	240	276

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/SK)

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