DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continued to grind lower the second week of November 2019, following four months of similar price moves, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower in price compared to the previous month. While none were down a significant amount, which DTN considers a price change of 5% or more, anhydrous prices dropped below $500 per ton for the first time in more than a year.

DAP had an average price of $457 per ton, down $8; MAP $465/ton, down $7; potash $382/ton, down less than $1; urea $388/ton, down $14; anhydrous $496/ton, down $11; UAN28 $246/ton, down $7; and UAN32 $284/ton, down $5.

The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, had an average price of $473/ton, a $2/ton increase from last month.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

With retail fertilizer prices falling in recent months, I thought it would be interesting to take look back to the retail price six months ago. We take a look back 12 months at the end of the column every week, and I thought maybe splitting this number in half would create some interesting data.

Six months ago takes us back to the second week of May, right in the heart of spring planting season. Anhydrous had the largest price difference compared to the current price of $496/ton. That is down $99/ton from May when it was at $595/ton.

It's really not a surprise anhydrous would have the largest decrease in price since it's the fertilizer that tends to change the most as demand strengthens and weakens.

The next fertilizer with the largest difference was MAP. The phosphorous fertilizer had a retail price of $526/ton in May and $465/ton last week, so it is now down $61/ton. DAP had an average price of $498/ton back in May and $457/ton this week, a drop of $41/ton.

Urea's average price last week was $388/ton and in May was $426/ton, a drop of $38/ton. UAN32 was at $284/ton last week and $311/ton back in May, a decline of $27/ton, while UAN28 was at $246/ton last week and $267/ton back in May, down $21/ton.

The fertilizer with the smallest price change over this six-month range was potash. Last week, the average price was $382/ton and in May it was at $392/ton, a drop of just $10/ton.

Like anhydrous having the largest price decline, I would have bet that potash (or maybe 10-34-0) would have had the smallest drop. These two fertilizers' prices really don't move much.

Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP is now 12% less expensive, DAP is 9% lower, urea is 5% less expensive, anhydrous is 4% lower and UAN32 is 1% less expensive from last year at this time. UAN28 is 1% higher, 10-34-0 is 3% more expensive and potash is 4% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 12-16 2018	500	530	368	407
Dec 10-14 2018	505	533	375	407
Jan 7-11 2019	508	533	381	407
Feb 4-8 2019	511	536	385	408
Mar 4-8 2019	510	534	386	403
Apr 1-5 2019	509	533	386	405
Apr 29-May 3 2019	498	528	390	413
May 27-31 2019	497	527	392	430
Jun 24-28, 2019	495	531	392	429
Jul 22-26 2019	495	531	394	430
Aug 19-23 2019	491	495	387	413
Sep 16-20 2019	480	478	384	404
Oct 14-18, 2019	465	472	382	402
Nov 11-15 2019	457	465	382	388
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 12-16 2018	457	519	245	287
Dec 10-14 2018	455	552	261	302
Jan 7-11 2019	461	573	267	304
Feb 4-8 2019	470	596	271	318
Mar 4-8 2019	470	596	270	317
Apr 1-5 2019	474	599	272	319
Apr 29-May 3 2019	487	595	268	315
May 27-31 2019	487	590	270	314
Jun 24-28, 2019	487	584	269	318
Jul 22-26 2019	485	582	272	320
Aug 19-23 2019	475	530	257	291
Sep 16-20 2019	471	509	254	289
Oct 14-18, 2019	471	507	253	289
Nov 11-15 2019	473	496	246	284

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(KD/AG)

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