DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to be mostly higher, according to prices tracked by DTN for the third week of May 2018. Like off and on in recent weeks, there are some possible signs that fertilizer prices may be weakening.

Five of the eight major fertilizer were once again higher in price compared to last month, although none were up a considerable amount. MAP had an average price of $504/ton, potash $354/ton, 10-34-0 $439/ton and UAN28 $241/ton.

Three fertilizers were slightly lower in price compared to the previous month. DAP had an average price of $483/ton, urea $364/ton and UAN32 $276/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.40/lb.N, anhydrous $0.31/lb.N, UAN28 $0.43/lb.N and UAN32 $0.43/lb.N.

With a majority of spring planted crop already in the ground -- 92% of the corn nationally, and 77% of soybeans, as of May 27, according to the most recent USDA weekly Crop Progress report -- a logical assumption might be fertilizer prices would drop in prices because of less demand. While this could still happen, most fertilizers do not appear set to decline in price anytime soon.

Mark Rohrich, who operates Maverick Ag, a full-service agronomy company, and farms near Ashley, North Dakota, told DTN he hasn't heard much about what possible direction fertilizer prices could head in the future. Retailers and farmers in the Northern Plains are still busy seeding, he added.

"I think that pressure has kept the (fertilizer) price there, as well as supply and logistics," Rohrich told DTN.

Keeping fertilizer moving out to fields has been a major challenge during the busy spring season in North Dakota.

There has been reports of spot fertilizer outages in some part of the state, he said. Retailers have had a difficult time replacing tons on hand before it was sent out to the fields.

In response, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum signed an emergency executive order on May 10 granting a waiver of hours of service for drivers of commercial vehicles transporting fertilizers. State Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring requested the waiver to ensure that sufficient fertilizer resources for farmers and the waiver on fertilizer lasts through May 30, according to a press release from the office of the governor.

"Electric Logging Device (ELD) definitely put a cramp on rush delivery," he said.

Six of the eight major fertilizers are now higher compared to last year, with prices pushing higher in recent months. Both 10-34-0 and anhydrous are now up 1%, potash is 4% higher, urea is 6% more expensive, MAP is 7% higher and DAP is 11% more expensive compared to last year.

The remaining two fertilizers are lower in price compared to a year prior. UAN32 is 1% lower, while UAN28 is 3% less expensive.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts include cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
May 22-26 2017	436	471	340	343
Jun 19-23 2017	436	470	340	333
Jul 17-21 2017	435	464	339	309
Aug 14-18 2017	434	460	338	305
Sep 11-15 2017	431	456	336	310
Oct 9-13 2017	432	453	347	325
Nov 6-10 2017	434	459	341	338
Dec 4-8 2017	438	471	343	344
Jan 1-5 2018	452	490	345	350
Jan 29-Feb 2 2018	458	492	344	355
Feb 26-Mar 2 2018	461	497	346	361
Mar 26-30 2018	470	506	350	370
Apr 23-27 2018	485	504	353	367
May 21-25 2018	483	504	354	364
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
May 22-26 2017	436	503	249	280
Jun 19-23 2017	435	497	243	273
Jul 17-21 2017	425	425	229	265
Aug 14-18 2017	419	419	216	251
Sep 11-15 2017	416	412	210	248
Oct 9-13 2017	413	397	206	253
Nov 6-10 2017	403	409	216	272
Dec 4-8 2017	404	424	215	251
Jan 1-5 2018	409	474	219	256
Jan 29-Feb 2 2018	415	491	227	261
Feb 26-Mar 2 2018	416	496	233	279
Mar 26-30 2018	425	507	237	272
Apr 23-27 2018	431	507	241	277
May 21-25 2018	439	504	241	276

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(ES/BAS)

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