DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- For the third week in a row, average retail prices for all eight major fertilizers were higher the third week of January 2018, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

Though prices for all fertilizers were higher, the price of only one fertilizer was up by a noteworthy amount. Anhydrous was up 5% compared to a month prior and had an average price of $485 per ton.

Prices for the remaining seven fertilizers were up just slightly. DAP had an average price of $456 per ton, MAP $491/ton, potash $345/ton, urea $355/ton, 10-34-0 $407/ton, UAN28 $226/ton and UAN32 $260/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.40/lb.N and UAN32 $0.41/lb.N.

With the higher retail fertilizer prices being seen in the last few months, it is valid to wonder whether farmers will alter how they apply fertilizer in the 2018 growing season. Will they apply less fertilizer, change to different forms of fertilizer, or maybe even change crops to limit the need for nutrients?

Jeremy Flikkema, who farms near Lanark in northwestern Illinois, told DTN he was fortunate to get most of his fertilizer applied last fall thanks to a wide application window after harvest was completed.

"We got most of our anhydrous put on this fall; we don't have a lot to do for the spring," Flikkema said. "We also got a lot of our dry (fertilizer) put on as well."

Flikkema said that he did book some anhydrous after the price increase for application in the spring with his first-pass herbicide application. He said if fertilizer prices stay high, he would consider shifting some acres away from corn to soybeans. As a result, he would back off on dry fertilizer applications on maybe 5% to 10% of total acres, he estimated.

Mike Carlson, who farms near Red Oak, Iowa, also said higher fertilizer prices will have little effect on his farming operation, as he was able to apply most of his fertilizer needs last fall before prices began to rise.

"Almost all of my fertilizer has been applied, so my price is locked in," Carlson told DTN.

Carlson will come back in the spring and apply some liquid nitrogen with the first herbicide application, but this nitrogen has been pre-paid. Most farmers in his region of southwestern Iowa took advantage of the cooperative fall weather to apply at least some of their fertilizer needs, and Carlson said he doesn't believe farmers in his area will alter crop rotations much.

All but three fertilizers are now higher compared to last year with prices pushing higher in recent months. Anhydrous is 2% higher, urea is 3% more expensive, both DAP and potash are 6% higher and MAP is 11% more expensive.

Three fertilizers are still lower in price compared to a year prior. UAN32 is 3% lower while UAN28 is 4%, and 10-34-0 is 7% less expensive looking back a year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 16-20 2017	430	443	324	346
Feb 13-17 2017	432	450	332	357
Mar 13-17 2017	443	462	337	360
Apr 10-13 2017	437	466	338	353
May 8-12 2017	437	466	340	351
Jun 5-9 2017	438	469	339	338
Jul 3-7 2017	436	467	339	325
Jul 31-Aug 4 2017	434	463	339	311
Aug 28-Sept 1 2017	433	457	338	303
Sep 15-29 2017	432	453	348	321
Oct 23-27 2017	431	453	347	325
Nov 20-24 2017	435	460	342	338
Dec 18-22 2017	445	485	344	348
Jan 15-19 2018	456	491	345	355
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 16-20 2017	437	478	235	267
Feb 13-17 2017	440	491	240	276
Mar 13-17 2017	441	507	247	280
Apr 10-13 2017	441	505	247	280
May 8-12 2017	437	508	247	280
Jun 5-9 2017	435	503	246	278
Jul 3-7 2017	432	462	236	268
Jul 31-Aug 4 2017	426	418	227	262
Aug 28-Sept 1 2017	418	417	215	248
Sep 15-29 2017	413	396	208	243
Oct 23-27 2017	407	393	205	262
Nov 20-24 2017	403	410	216	272
Dec 18-22 2017	405	461	218	254
Jan 15-19 2018	407	485	226	260

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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