DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Anhydrous Breaks 8% Lower

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Anhydrous was down 8% compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer average price was $462/ton. (DTN graphic by Scott R Kemper)

OMAHA (DTN) -- According to fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the first week of July 2017, all eight major fertilizer are lower in price but for the first time in several months a fertilizer was actually down a significant amount.

As a sign that side dressing operations must be wrapping up across the Corn Belt, anhydrous was down 8% compared to last month. The nitrogen fertilizer average price was $462/ton.

While anhydrous broke free from the treadmill of steady prices that has been present this entire calendar year, the other major fertilizers did not.

The remaining seven fertilizers were lower compared to the prior month, but none of them were lower any substantial amount. DAP had an average price of $436/ton, MAP $467/ton, potash $339/ton, 10-34-0 $325/ton, anhydrous $462/ton, UAN28 $236/ton and UAN32 $268/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.35/lb.N, anhydrous $0.28/lb.N, UAN28 $0.42/lb.N and UAN32 $0.42/lb.N.

The drop in anhydrous retail price was the first time retail fertilizers have seen a significant decline in nearly five full months. The last time we saw a noteworthy change in prices was the third week of February, a remarkable 20-week run of steady prices.

As fertilizer prices finally appeared to decline a bit, shares of fertilizer companies were sharply higher early this week as corn prices moved higher, Dow Jones reported. Corn futures moved more than 2% higher to settle above $4.00 a bushel for the first time since June 2016, helping to fuel the gains in fertilizer companies.

Shares of CF Industries shot up 7.1% towards a three-month high, which was enough to make it the biggest percentage gainer in the S&P 500 index. Mosaic Co. shares were the second biggest S&P 500 gainer as they shifted 6.5% higher, a two-month high.

In addition, other fertilizer companies also saw gains with shares of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. jumping 6.8% and Agrium Inc. hiking up 7.1%.

Despite the gains seen this week, fertilizer companies are in the red for the year. CF's stock was still down 4.8% year to date, while Mosaic shares has fallen 18%.

With corn prices on the rise and retail fertilizer falling, it will be interesting to see how long this situation will continue to occur. Fertilizer prices usually follow corn prices in whatever direction they go, it is not often the prices are moving in opposite directions.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. Five of the eight major fertilizers are double-digits lower.

10-34-0 is 21% lower from a year ago, while anhydrous is 17% less expensive, UAN32 is 12% lower and both urea and UAN28 are 10% less expensive. DAP is 7% lower and both MAP and potash are both 6% lower.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
July 4-8 2016 469 496 359 361
Aug 1-5 2016 459 488 346 349
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016 449 464 327 326
Sept 26-30 2016 440 458 317 322
Oct 24-28 2016 436 451 313 317
Nov 21-25 2016 436 445 316 328
Dec 19-23 2016 432 437 321 336
Jan 16-20 2017 430 443 324 346
Feb 13-17 2017 432 450 332 357
Mar 13-17 2017 443 462 337 360
Apr 10-13 2017 437 466 338 353
May 8-12 2017 437 466 340 351
Jun 5-9 2017 438 469 339 338
Jun 3-7 2017 436 467 339 325
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
July 4-8 2016 546 554 261 304
Aug 1-5 2016 548 552 254 307
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016 493 509 233 275
Sept 26-30 2016 465 486 223 271
Oct 24-28 2016 452 472 224 262
Nov 21-25 2016 445 465 218 256
Dec 19-23 2016 442 468 217 255
Jan 16-20 2017 437 478 235 267
Feb 13-17 2017 440 491 240 276
Mar 13-17 2017 441 507 247 280
Apr 10-13 2017 441 505 247 280
May 8-12 2017 437 508 247 280
Jun 5-9 2017 435 503 246 278
Jun 3-7 2017 432 462 236 268

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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(BAS/ES)

Russ Quinn