DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

DTN Poll: Farmers Locked in Fertilizer

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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DTN recently ran a poll question asking "Retail fertilizer prices have been on a steady increase since the beginning of 2017. Have you pre-purchased any of your fertilizer needs?" This chart shows how readers responded. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- As has been the case in recent weeks, retail fertilizer prices are still on the rise but at a fairly small clip the second week of March 2017, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks the eighth consecutive week prices have moved higher.

All eight major fertilizers were higher compared to a month earlier, the fourth week in a row all were higher. While all fertilizers were higher once again, none of the eight were up any noteworthy amount. This is the third consecutive week prices were not up any noticeable amount.

DAP had an average price of $443/ton, MAP $462/ton, potash $337/ton and urea $360/ton. 10-34-0 had an average price of $441/ton, anhydrous $507/ton, UAN28 $247/ton and UAN32 $280/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.31/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

DTN recently ran a poll question asking, "Retail fertilizer prices have been on a steady increase since the beginning of 2017. Have you pre-purchased any of your fertilizer needs?" The answers included choice 1, "Yes, I did several months ago;" choice 2, "Yes, I have in recent weeks;" choice 3, "No, I have not but I will soon;" and choice 4, "No, I don't ever lock in fertilizer."

With 431 total responses, the majority, 71%, responded with choice 1, "Yes, I did several months ago." Eleven percent said, "Yes, I have in recent weeks," while 9% responded, "No, I have not but I will soon." Eight percent went with choice 4, "No, I don't ever lock in fertilizer."

While it is not surprising the majority of polltakers responded with one of the first three choices, what may be a little surprising is the high percentage of those selections. Those top three answers added together come to 92% of polltakers who said they have already or will soon lock in at least some of their fertilizer needs.

Breaking down the data by state finds all of the nine states with double-digit responses fell in line with the overall numbers of the poll. These states were Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

The state with the highest number of respondents who selected choice 1 was Minnesota, with 85%. The remaining 15% selected choice 2.

The state with the lowest number of choice 1 answers was South Dakota, with 65% taking this selection. Eighteen percent selected choice 3, 12% picked choice 2, and 5% picked choice 4.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. Half of the eight major fertilizer are double digits lower.

10-34-0 is 21% lower from a year ago, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 11% less expensive and UAN28 is 10% less expensive. Potash is 9% less expensive, both MAP and urea is 8% lower, and DAP is 7% compared to year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Mar 14-18 2016 477 499 369 390
Apr 11-15 2016 480 504 367 388
May 9-13 2016 476 502 366 385
June 6-10 2016 470 498 359 370
July 4-8 2016 469 496 359 361
Aug 1-5 2016 459 488 346 349
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016 449 464 327 326
Sept 26-30 2016 440 458 317 322
Oct 24-28 2016 436 451 313 317
Nov 21-25 2016 436 445 316 328
Dec 19-23 2016 432 437 321 336
Jan 16-20 2017 430 443 324 346
Feb 13-17 2017 432 450 332 357
Mar 13-17 2017 443 462 337 360
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Mar 14-18 2016 560 566 276 312
Apr 11-15 2016 560 587 273 318
May 9-13 2016 561 588 274 321
June 6-10 2016 556 569 267 310
July 4-8 2016 546 554 261 304
Aug 1-5 2016 548 552 254 307
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016 493 509 233 275
Sept 26-30 2016 465 486 223 271
Oct 24-28 2016 452 472 224 262
Nov 21-25 2016 445 465 218 256
Dec 19-23 2016 442 468 217 255
Jan 16-20 2017 437 478 235 267
Feb 13-17 2017 440 491 240 276
Mar 13-17 2017 441 507 247 280

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

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(AG/BAS)

Russ Quinn