DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- As has been the case in recent weeks, retail fertilizer prices are still on the rise but at a fairly small clip the second week of March 2017, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks the eighth consecutive week prices have moved higher.

All eight major fertilizers were higher compared to a month earlier, the fourth week in a row all were higher. While all fertilizers were higher once again, none of the eight were up any noteworthy amount. This is the third consecutive week prices were not up any noticeable amount.

DAP had an average price of $443/ton, MAP $462/ton, potash $337/ton and urea $360/ton. 10-34-0 had an average price of $441/ton, anhydrous $507/ton, UAN28 $247/ton and UAN32 $280/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.31/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

DTN recently ran a poll question asking, "Retail fertilizer prices have been on a steady increase since the beginning of 2017. Have you pre-purchased any of your fertilizer needs?" The answers included choice 1, "Yes, I did several months ago;" choice 2, "Yes, I have in recent weeks;" choice 3, "No, I have not but I will soon;" and choice 4, "No, I don't ever lock in fertilizer."

With 431 total responses, the majority, 71%, responded with choice 1, "Yes, I did several months ago." Eleven percent said, "Yes, I have in recent weeks," while 9% responded, "No, I have not but I will soon." Eight percent went with choice 4, "No, I don't ever lock in fertilizer."

While it is not surprising the majority of polltakers responded with one of the first three choices, what may be a little surprising is the high percentage of those selections. Those top three answers added together come to 92% of polltakers who said they have already or will soon lock in at least some of their fertilizer needs.

Breaking down the data by state finds all of the nine states with double-digit responses fell in line with the overall numbers of the poll. These states were Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio and South Dakota.

The state with the highest number of respondents who selected choice 1 was Minnesota, with 85%. The remaining 15% selected choice 2.

The state with the lowest number of choice 1 answers was South Dakota, with 65% taking this selection. Eighteen percent selected choice 3, 12% picked choice 2, and 5% picked choice 4.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. Half of the eight major fertilizer are double digits lower.

10-34-0 is 21% lower from a year ago, both anhydrous and UAN32 are 11% less expensive and UAN28 is 10% less expensive. Potash is 9% less expensive, both MAP and urea is 8% lower, and DAP is 7% compared to year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Mar 14-18 2016	477	499	369	390
Apr 11-15 2016	480	504	367	388
May 9-13 2016	476	502	366	385
June 6-10 2016	470	498	359	370
July 4-8 2016	469	496	359	361
Aug 1-5 2016	459	488	346	349
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016	449	464	327	326
Sept 26-30 2016	440	458	317	322
Oct 24-28 2016	436	451	313	317
Nov 21-25 2016	436	445	316	328
Dec 19-23 2016	432	437	321	336
Jan 16-20 2017	430	443	324	346
Feb 13-17 2017	432	450	332	357
Mar 13-17 2017	443	462	337	360
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Mar 14-18 2016	560	566	276	312
Apr 11-15 2016	560	587	273	318
May 9-13 2016	561	588	274	321
June 6-10 2016	556	569	267	310
July 4-8 2016	546	554	261	304
Aug 1-5 2016	548	552	254	307
Aug 29-Sept 2 2016	493	509	233	275
Sept 26-30 2016	465	486	223	271
Oct 24-28 2016	452	472	224	262
Nov 21-25 2016	445	465	218	256
Dec 19-23 2016	442	468	217	255
Jan 16-20 2017	437	478	235	267
Feb 13-17 2017	440	491	240	276
Mar 13-17 2017	441	507	247	280

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(AG/BAS)

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