DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices were mixed again the third week of November 2016 with most products slightly lower while some were higher, according to fertilizer retails surveyed by DTN.

Like last week, prices for six of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to a month earlier, though none of these moves were substantial. DAP had an average price of $436 per ton, MAP $445/ton, 10-34-0 $445/ton, anhydrous $466/ton, UAN28 $219/ton and UAN32 $256/ton.

The remaining two fertilizers were slightly higher in price compared to a month prior. Neither fertilizer was up significantly. Potash had an average price of $315/ton and urea was at $327/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.35/lb.N, anhydrous $0.28/lb.N, UAN28 $0.39/lb.N and UAN32 $0.40/lb.N.

Last week, DTN attended the 2016 Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, which is put on every year by The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) and the Fertilizer Industry Round Table (FIRT). While the outlooks for the different fertilizers don't include anything about prices in the presentations, they did reveal some interesting information about global nutrient supply and demand.

Overall, presenters reached a common conclusion: Global nutrient supply and demand are fairly well balanced despite some overproduction in recent years.

Potash, for instance, has been in an oversupply situation in 14 of the last 15 years, but this is a normal pattern for the industry. Despite the oversupply, the potash outlook is "not that bad," from a nutrient seller's perspective.

Like potash, the phosphate price outlook has held up fairly well in 2016 despite high global stocks thanks to competitiveness for P across the globe. China remains an important key for the world phosphate market.

In the nitrogen market, the big news continues to be the new North American nitrogen supplies that have come online in recent years or will be coming into the market in the near future. This has the potential to completely change the region's situation with both nitrogen imports and exports.

DTN will have a global fertilizer series next month, which will take an in-depth look at the nitrogen, phosphorus and potash outlooks for 2017 and the coming years. In addition, the series will also take a closer look at fertilizer circumstances in other key countries.

As they say in television, stay tuned.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double digits lower.

Urea is now down 19%, DAP is 20% less expensive and MAP is 21% lower. Both 10-34-0 and UAN32 are 23% lower, UAN28 is 24% less expensive and both potash and anhydrous are 26% lower compared to a year prior.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Nov 16-20 2015	545	559	424	403
Dec 14-18 2015	532	544	410	392
Jan 11-15 2016	495	521	391	381
Feb 8-12 2016	479	499	378	369
Mar 7-11 2016	477	494	372	378
Apr 4-8 2016	480	504	369	387
May 2-6 2016	475	502	366	385
May 30-June 3 2016	473	499	363	375
June 27-July 1 2016	468	495	358	365
July 25-29 2016	459	492	356	356
Aug 22-26 2016	451	468	330	330
Sept 19-23 2016	443	453	319	323
Oct 17-21 2016	436	452	313	317
Nov 14-18 2016	436	445	315	327
LIQUID
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Nov 16-20 2015	579	629	287	332
Dec 14-18 2015	571	612	279	331
Jan 11-15 2016	572	581	272	319
Feb 8-12 2016	569	551	261	303
Mar 7-11 2016	562	541	262	312
Apr 4-8 2016	561	586	272	315
May 2-6 2016	560	589	274	321
May 30-June 3 2016	559	579	268	313
June 27-July 1 2016	554	566	266	304
July 25-29 2016	543	545	257	304
Aug 22-26 2016	502	515	234	280
Sept 19-23 2016	470	494	225	271
Oct 17-21 2016	453	475	224	265
Nov 14-18 2016	445	466	219	256

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(GH\AG\SRK)

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