DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Fertilizer Price Decline Slows

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Potash prices continue to show the sharpest declines over the past year, down 29% compared to the same time in October 2015. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to move lower the second week of October, though the rate of decline slowed from what was seen in previous weeks, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. While all eight of the major fertilizer are lower compared to a month earlier, the string of nine consecutive weeks with significantly lower prices was broken as no products were down by any considerable amount.

DAP averaged $438 per ton, MAP $452/ton, potash $313/ton and urea $316/ton. 10-34-0 averaged $454/ton, anhydrous $475/ton, UAN28 $224/ton and UAN32 $264/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.34/lb.N, anhydrous $0.29/lb.N, UAN28 $0.40/lb.N and UAN32 $0.41/lb.N.

With harvest continuing, many farmers look forward to the next task at hand once harvest is done, and for some that includes applying fertilizer. For others, however, the next fertilizer application season is not until next spring.

Mark Rohrich, who operates Maverick Ag, a full-service agronomy center, and farms near Ashley, North Dakota, said very few farmers in his home area of south-central North Dakota near the South Dakota border apply much fertilizer after harvest.

"I haven't heard of much interest in fertilizer right now," Rohrich told DTN.

While the application season is still far off for most of his customers, Rohrich said he believes another factor was keeping interest in pre-purchasing fertilizer at bay. Crop farmers prefer to wait until after harvest is over and see what yields actually are before they make any cash-flow or crop decisions for next year, he said.

As for where the price of fertilizer will be when farmers in the region are ready to purchase some nutrients, Rohrich said he believes one single factor will affect fertilizer prices the most.

"I think prices of fertilizer will continue to reflect a bit off of the direction of the futures market," he said.

Retail fertilizers remain lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double digits lower.

Both DAP and MAP are now down 20%, and both 10-34-0 and UAN32 are 22% lower. Both urea and UAN28 are 24% less expensive, anhydrous is 26% lower and potash is 29% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Oct 12-16 2015 547 564 440 418
Nov 9-13 2015 547 561 426 405
Dec 7-11 2015 534 555 417 397
Jan 4-8 2016 495 521 392 381
Feb 1-5 2016 488 502 381 370
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016 476 492 373 374
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016 478 501 370 386
Apr 25-29 2016 476 502 366 386
May 23-27 2016 476 501 365 381
June 20-24 2016 470 495 358 366
July 18-22 2016 464 493 357 357
Aug 15-19 2016 452 471 333 337
Sept 12-16 2016 444 458 320 324
Oct 10-14 2016 438 452 313 316
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Oct 12-16 2015 584 640 295 338
Nov 9-13 2015 581 631 289 332
Dec 7-11 2015 575 625 284 330
Jan 4-8 2016 572 582 273 316
Feb 1-5 2016 549 555 263 305
Feb 29-Mar 4 2016 566 537 260 309
Mar 28-Apr 1 2016 561 580 268 315
Apr 25-29 2016 560 587 274 321
May 23-27 2016 560 587 274 321
June 20-24 2016 554 567 265 305
July 18-22 2016 546 546 260 304
Aug 15-19 2016 513 516 238 285
Sept 12-16 2016 474 496 233 272
Oct 10-14 2016 454 475 224 264

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow Russ Quinn on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

(MZT/AG)

Russ Quinn