DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Three Fertilizers See Large Price Declines

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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Anhydrous is now 6% lower compared to the previous month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $522 per ton the second week of August 2016. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- After months of only slight declines, average retail fertilizer prices finally appeared to be dropping substantially the second week of August 2016, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. While all fertilizer prices were lower, the average prices of several fertilizers were significantly lower than a month earlier.

Anhydrous is now 6% lower compared to the previous month. The nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $522 per ton. Both urea and UAN28 were 5% lower compared to the second week of July. Urea had an average price of $345/ton and UAN28 $249/ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were lower in price compared to the month earlier, but these moves were not significant. DAP had an average price of $453/ton, MAP $482/ton, potash $344/ton, 10-34-0 was at $528/ton and UAN28 $249/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.38/lb.N, anhydrous $0.32/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.47/lb.N.

The significantly lower retail fertilizer prices are not a surprise, according to retailers. Most appear content to wait for the low in the market to occur before they release fall fill prices.

Rob Fritz, senior agronomist for Hefty Seeds based in Baltic, South Dakota, wrote in the Aug. 9 edition of the Fertilizer and Equipment Gazette email newsletter that fall fertilizer prices could be lower.

"From all indicators, it looks like fertilizer will be lower and possibly much lower than last season," Fritz wrote.

Urea prices are already "much lower" than the previous year, he said. This, in turn will pressure the liquid nitrogen market to drop, so he is expecting to see big moves lower.

Fritz added that phosphorus and potash prices are currently fairly flat at this time. However, these fertilizers too could have lower fall fill prices in the coming weeks.

Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double-digits lower.

Both UAN32 and 10-34-0 are 16% lower, MAP is 18% less expensive and DAP is 20% lower. UAN28 is 21% lower, anhydrous is 23% less expensive, urea is 25% lower and potash is 28% less expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Aug 10-14 2015 568 591 479 457
Sep 7-11 2015 563 580 467 433
Oct 5-9 2015 548 564 446 418
Nov 2-6 2015 546 560 430 405
Nov 30-Dec 4 2015 541 559 421 400
Dec 28-Jan 1 2016 494 531 398 383
Jan 25-29 2016 495 515 391 380
Feb 22-26 2016 477 492 373 371
Mar 21-25 2016 475 501 371 390
Apr 18-22 2016 477 502 366 388
May 16-20 2016 476 501 365 384
June 13-17 2016 469 496 359 367
July 11-15 2016 467 496 358 360
Aug 8-12 2016 453 482 344 345
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Aug 10-14 2015 631 677 315 356
Sep 7-11 2015 594 656 301 346
Oct 5-9 2015 584 639 294 338
Nov 2-6 2015 583 633 291 332
Nov 30-Dec 4 2015 578 627 286 332
Dec 28-Jan 1 2016 570 590 273 317
Jan 25-29 2016 571 569 271 317
Feb 22-26 2016 566 536 260 309
Mar 21-25 2016 561 569 276 312
Apr 18-22 2016 561 588 274 322
May 16-20 2016 558 588 274 321
June 13-17 2016 555 566 266 305
July 11-15 2016 538 547 266 306
Aug 8-12 2016 528 522 249 299

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(AG/BAS)

Russ Quinn