DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Fertilizer Prices Dip Again

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
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DAP prices have plunged 19% in the past year, but manufacturers like Mosaic think fertilizer prices may be reaching bottom. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- As has been the case for the last several weeks now, average retail fertilizer prices continued to be just slightly lower the fourth week of July 2016, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN.

All eight of the major fertilizers dipped in price compared to the previous month, but once again none were down by any significance. DAP averaged $459 per ton, MAP $492/ton, potash $356/ton and urea also at $356/ton. 10-34-0 was at $543/ton, anhydrous $545/ton, UAN28 $257/ton and UAN32 $304/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.39/lb.N, anhydrous $0.33/lb.N, UAN28 $0.46/lb.N and UAN32 $0.48/lb.N.

The ongoing lowering fertilizer prices have an effect not only on farmers but also on the profitability of fertilizer companies. Mosaic announced recently that their second quarter will have a loss, although the company sees brighter days ahead as prices of its crop nutrients "bottom" and demand stays solid, according to Dow Jones.

Mosaic expects increased shipments of phosphates, its biggest segment by sales, to boost profitability in that business in the second half of 2016. In addition, expected near-record use of fertilizer by Brazilian farmers this year adds to the brighter outlook, the article reported.

According to Mosaic CEO Joc O'Rourke, soft U.S. crop prices weigh on the North American Grain Belt, but overall, "fertilizer is very affordable" for farmers now. U.S. farmers are projected to harvest a record corn crop this year and "higher yields means higher fertilizer removal from the soil, which tends to drive higher demand," O'Rourke said.

For the time being, DTN's retail fertilizer prices remain lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double digits lower.

UAN32 is 14% lower, 10-34-0 is 15% less expensive and MAP 17% lower. DAP is 19% lower and both anhydrous and UAN28 are 21% less expensive. Urea is 24% less expensive and potash is 27% less expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
July 27-31 2015 569 594 487 469
Aug 24-28 2015 567 586 476 447
Sept 21-25 2015 562 575 454 428
Oct 19-23 2015 547 562 435 413
Nov 16-20 2015 545 559 424 403
Dec 14-18 2015 532 544 410 392
Jan 11-15 2016 495 521 391 381
Feb 8-12 2016 479 499 378 369
Mar 7-11 2016 477 494 372 378
Apr 4-8 2016 480 504 369 387
May 2-6 2016 475 502 366 385
May 30-June 3 2016 473 499 363 375
June 27-July 1 2016 468 495 358 365
July 25-29 2016 459 492 356 356
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
July 27-31 2015 636 689 324 354
Aug 24-28 2015 609 667 309 350
Sept 21-25 2015 589 646 297 343
Oct 19-23 2015 582 637 291 334
Nov 16-20 2015 579 629 287 332
Dec 14-18 2015 571 612 279 331
Jan 11-15 2016 572 581 272 319
Feb 8-12 2016 569 551 261 303
Mar 7-11 2016 562 541 262 312
Apr 4-8 2016 561 586 272 315
May 2-6 2016 560 589 274 321
May 30-June 3 2016 559 579 268 313
June 27-July 1 2016 554 566 266 304
July 25-29 2016 543 545 257 304

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/AG)

Russ Quinn