DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

UAN32 Leads the Way Lower Again

Russ Quinn
By  Russ Quinn , DTN Staff Reporter
Connect with Russ:
The average retail price for UAN32 fertilizer the last week of June 2016 was $304 per ton, down 5% from the previous month. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail prices for fertilizers continued to move lower the last week of June 2016, according to fertilizer retailers surveyed by DTN. This marks three weeks in a row fertilizer prices have been notably lower.

All eight of the major fertilizers were lower in price compared to the previous month. However, the only fertilizer to show a significant move was UAN32. The liquid nitrogen fertilizer was down 5% compared to the previous month and had an average price of $304 per ton.

The remaining seven fertilizers were lower in price from last month, but their moves were fairly small. DAP had an average price of $468/ton, MAP $495/ton, potash $358/ton, urea $365/ton, 10-34-0 $554/ton, anhydrous $566/ton and UAN28 $266/ton

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.40/lb.N, anhydrous $0.34/lb.N, UAN28 $0.47/lb.N and UAN32 $0.48/lb.N.

China's potash inventory is expected to remain high for the rest of 2016, which will decrease imports and depress the global potash price, according to a Dow Jones article. China is the largest potash consumer in the world with 27% of the global demand, which means changes in Chinese imports would have an effect on global potash prices.

China's imports of potash declined by 10% year-on-year (yoy) to 3.0 million metric tons (mmt) in the first five months of 2016 with total import value dropping 17%. The average import price is at a historical low.

Fitch Ratings told Dow Jones it believes the high inventory is primarily associated with weaker domestic demand, rising domestic output and aggressive imports in previous years. China imported 8 mmt of potash in 2014 and 9.4 mmt in 2015, which represented growth of 33% yoy and 17% yoy.

In addition, China's domestic potash output in 2015 rose by 8.6% yoy to around 9.5 mmt. Fitch said they expect China's domestic production to remain high as the Chinese government has a target of achieving 70% self-sufficiency in potash fertilizer production by 2020, compared to 60% now, Dow Jones reported.

Retail prices for all fertilizers are now double digits lower compared to a year ago. 10-34-0 is 14% lower while MAP is 17% less expensive. DAP and UAN32 are both 18% lower. Both anhydrous and UAN28 are 20% lower while urea is 22% lower. Potash is 27% less expensive compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The weekly charts are cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
June 29-July 3 2015 570 596 490 469
July 27-31 2015 569 594 487 469
Aug 24-28 2015 567 586 476 447
Sept 21-25 2015 562 575 454 428
Oct 19-23 2015 547 562 435 413
Nov 16-20 2015 545 559 424 403
Dec 14-18 2015 532 544 410 392
Jan 11-15 2016 495 521 391 381
Feb 8-12 2016 479 499 378 369
Mar 7-11 2016 477 494 372 378
Apr 4-8 2016 480 504 369 387
May 2-6 2016 475 502 366 385
May 30-June 3 2016 473 499 363 375
June 27-July 1 2016 468 495 358 365
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
June 29-July 3 2015 642 705 330 369
July 27-31 2015 636 689 324 354
Aug 24-28 2015 609 667 309 350
Sept 21-25 2015 589 646 297 343
Oct 19-23 2015 582 637 291 334
Nov 16-20 2015 579 629 287 332
Dec 14-18 2015 571 612 279 331
Jan 11-15 2016 572 581 272 319
Feb 8-12 2016 569 551 261 303
Mar 7-11 2016 562 541 262 312
Apr 4-8 2016 561 586 272 315
May 2-6 2016 560 589 274 321
May 30-June 3 2016 559 579 268 313
June 27-July 1 2016 554 566 266 304

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

(MZT/CZ)

Russ Quinn