DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices continue to move lower, according to retailers tracked by DTN for the third week of January 2016. This week marks the fourth week in a row of significant price declines.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers edged lower compared to a month earlier with two fertilizers down some consequence.

Both DAP and anhydrous slid 5% compared to a month earlier. DAP averaged $495/ton and anhydrous $581/ton.

Five fertilizers were lower compared to the previous month but the moves to the low slide were fairly slight. MAP averaged $520/ton, potash $392/ton, urea $381/ton, UAN28 $272/ton and UAN32 $319/ton.

One fertilizer is slightly higher in price compared to a month earlier. 10-34-0 advanced slightly and now averages $571/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.41/lb.N, anhydrous $0.35/lb.N, UAN28 $0.49/lb.N and UAN32 $0.50/lb.N.

Retail fertilizer prices have declined considerably over the few last months. The current price situation begs the question: how long will these large price drops last?

While no one knows for sure, fertilizer retailers have their thoughts. Bob Spratt, manager of LeRoy Fertilizer Services located in LeRoy, Illinois, believes prices could drop until there is increased demand.

"My feeling is prices will flatten out as product begins to move with the start of planting," Spratt told DTN. "The market will get a feel here in a couple weeks, as planting starts in the South."

Mark Rohrich, a farmer and owner/operator of Maverick Ag, Inc. located in Ashley, North Dakota, said he also doesn't really have a feel for how much lower fertilizer prices could move. He does, however, believe there will be point of time prices will have to be set and demand will kick in.

"I'm not sure how much lower we can go but I know river shipments and tons logistics will need to be lined up," Rohrich said. "I think demand will be there come spring."

Farmers know they want to maintain yields and applying fertilizer will accomplish this but they also may be willing to pull back on some fertilizer practices, he said. This could be limiting some starter in corn and cutting back on fertilizer in soybeans.

Also, Spratt said he does have concerns about the upcoming spring, mainly about the weather forecast. Central Illinois could be looking at cool, wet spring, which would translate into a long, drawn out planting window.

With retail fertilizer moving lower in recent months, all fertilizers are cheaper compared to a year earlier. All but one fertilizer is now double digits lower. The only fertilizer not down much is 10-34-0, which is down 2%.

MAP, DAP and UAN32 are all 13% less expensive while UAN28 is 17% below a year ago. Anhydrous is now 18% lower, urea 19% less expensive and potash is 20% lower compared to a year earlier.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to November 2008 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range	DAP	MAP	POTASH	UREA
Jan 19-23 2015	568	596	487	469
Feb 16-20 2015	568	597	495	472
Mar 16-20 2015	570	597	490	470
Apr 13-17 2015	570	598	491	453
May 11-15 2015	570	598	491	457
June 8-12 2015	571	598	491	461
July 6-10 2015	570	596	489	470
Aug 3-7 2015	567	591	482	464
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	564	583	471	439
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	561	573	450	424
Oct 26-30 2015	546	562	431	409
Nov 23-27 2015	543	556	422	397
Dec 21-25 2015	519	541	408	390
Jan 18-22 2016	495	520	392	381
Liquid
Date Range	10-34-0	ANHYD	UAN28	UAN32
Jan 19-23 2015	585	707	326	367
Feb 16-20 2015	593	706	330	370
Mar 16-20 2015	614	705	332	368
Apr 13-17 2015	649	711	332	370
May 11-15 2015	653	711	331	371
June 8-12 2015	649	709	331	371
July 6-10 2015	640	695	327	366
Aug 3-7 2015	628	677	318	354
Aug 31-Sept 4 2015	602	659	304	349
Sept 28-Oct 2 2015	594	644	295	342
Oct 26-30 2015	583	638	292	334
Nov 23-27 2015	580	624	286	325
Dec 21-25 2015	571	608	277	330
Jan 18-22 2016	571	581	272	319

(SK)

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